Middle bets may be my favorite way to bet using data. They're the most fun to find and watch, and are hugely profitable too!

One of the reasons I use arbitrage bets is to beat the sportsbooks, but I confess that it isn't quite as fun as 'real' gambling. As soon as both bets are placed, it's all done, and there's no real rooting interest, because no matter what happens, or which side wins, I always win.

And the truth is, that's not why I gamble. I gamble to win.

Middle Bets combine one of Arbitrage's big advantages - the ability to use offsetting odds to your advantage - with a 'Jackpot' potential, where you can win hundreds of dollars on a single bet.

What is a Middle Bet?

Easy explanation? It's where two betting lines are far enough apart, that they leave a gap (the 'distance') that we can exploit. If a player's total receptions are 6.5 at one sportsbook, and 7.5 at another, that means if the player has 7 receptions, we win both bets.

Importantly, we also look for the odds to offset so that the risk is minimal. For example, odds of -115 and -109 would offset to a roughly 5% loss, or only $3-4, for a potential payout of almost double your stake.

Let's talk math

Here's why I love Middles: If you do it right, the math is in your favor. To win long term betting middles, you need to only hit on 6% of the middles you pick.

Let's take an example that BetSmart flagged this weekend on our Middle Betting tool - the Colorado Rapids at LA Galaxy MLS game.

BetSmart alerted us to a Middle opportunity whereby betting Over 2.5 goals at Bet365, and under 3.5 goals at Draftkings or Fanduel, we had a chance to win both sides of the total goals prop. Lo and behold, LA Galaxy won 0-3 and yes, both sides hit, returning $168.35 in profit.

Here's why it's a great bet.

We risked 6.41% of our $193 total stake to get that bet. If the teams had combined for 4 goals, the over would have won and we'd have only lost $11.65, if they'd been scoreless, the under would have won and we'd have lost $13.

So the maximum possible loss is only $13, and here's the important bit: When the potential win is so big, we would be looking at a bet of around +1300 to get anywhere near that $168 profit. Try finding a bet that is in that bracket in any sport, and they'll be very long shots that have little or no chance of coming off.

But 3 goals in a match is very, very possible. In fact, the odds of 3 goals in the same match were only +300 (implied probability of 25%)

This means we have effectively got 4x the normal odds of this bet.

That's why Middles are such a profitable endeavor, because the risks are tiny, and the rewards very, very big. The only catch is how to find them, which is where BetSmart comes in.

Golden Rule: The Lower the value, the better

Not all Middle bets are equal.

Just blindly betting on every opportunity will actually generate a profit (+$1200 over the previous weekend) but of course, real life dictates you probably can't place all 77 bets BetSmart flagged.

So how do we find 'good' bets?

My golden rule is that the lower the target value, the more likely to come off.

Think about these two bets: The total points in a College Football game are 65.5, and the total goals in a soccer match are 2.5

Which is more likely to hit exactly? The answer is of course, the total goals. That's because high scoring contests often have capacity for a wider range of outcomes. We know that a Middle Bet of between 65.5 and 66.5 means we need exactly 66 points to be scored, and that's much less likely. In fact, it's so improbable, that no sportsbook will even offer you odds on an exact number of points in a game where the outcome could be from 0-100.

So the lower the value, the more likely it'll come off - here's why:

Low Scoring frequency events

Example markets: Soccer total goals, Football Player receptions, Baseball Player batting props

Scoring increments are the rate at which a prop's value is scored. So in the NFL, teams score 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8 points per possession. In soccer, 1 goal per possession, in Basketball, the game is fluid and scoring constant, making it harder to predict exact scores.

So for example, a Batter's hits in Baseball are scored in increments of 1. The player can have no more than 1 hit at any at-bat, and given an average of say, 4 at-bats per game, the range of outcomes in a game is essentially between 0 and 4.

Similarly, in the example above featuring soccer, which is notorious for lower scores, the same applies. Goals are scored infrequently, and while there's no theoretical reason a team can't score 10 goals in a game, it happens so infrequently that the average range is between 0-5

So those are GREAT bets for middles. Why? Because the increment in which points are accrued is low, and the pace and frequency of those points is low too.

Conversely, a player's passing yards in the NFL have so many variables, that betting on an exact number is nigh on impossible.

That doesn't mean I don't bet on high variable/frequency props though...

High scoring frequency events

Example Markets: Football Player Passing yards, Game total points, Team spreads

As I mentioned, I will still bet on these markets, but the absolute key here is the MIDDLE DISTANCE. This is the range we are betting on happening. Here are some examples of this:

The higher that distance (you can sort by this number by clicking the column header), the better. In the case of Josh Allen's passing yards, we have a huge distance of 9 yards, and that's when the math begins to come back into our favor.

For example, Josh Allen fell within that scoring range for passing yards 3 times in 21 games last season. That implies odds of around +600 (14.2% probability). I don't love it, but I do think I'd risk losing $9-10 on it at those odds, because again, the odds are effectively over 3x what they should be.

I'm always more cautious with these bets. You can see in that example above, Bryce Young's 4 point distance, and that's where I'd be wary. That happened only once last season (8%) and implies odds of around +1200. Ultimately I think getting a +1800 bet for +1200 is good, but not great, so depending on your options, it can be worth waiting for a better one, particularly when the NFL markets tend to move as the weeks progress.

Markets I love

Based on what I've mentioned above, here are some sport-by-sport markets I always bet on if I find a Middle. It's not exhaustive, which is why I advise reading the above or dropping me and the guys an email, or contacting support, if you're not sure.

I've also explained where they're high scoring props, and risk is higher.

Football:

Player receptions (One of the few low volume/range NFL props, and should be played asap)
Selected Player rushing attempts (low target props such as QB or backup RB attempts under 10)
1st Quarter spread/points (How many 7-6 games have you seen at the end of Q1? Many)
Player passing, rushing and receiving yards with a big enough 'middle' distance. They're not my go-to bets, but the variation can be quite high between books, so if I get say, 10 yards gap between books on a 230.5 passing yards prop (about 4.2%) I will take it. If that gap was only 4 or 5 yards, I'd probably not.
Tip: Lower time periods (eg a quarter) can massively offset the higher variability of a bet's outcomes.

Baseball:

Total Pitching Strikeouts (16.6% hit rate, +$1,284 in August so far)
Total Pitching Outs (13.2% hit rate, +$1,245 in August so far)
Total Points (16.6% hit rate, +$495 in August so far)
Player Total Singles - a very rare prop but these should always be taken. The only one in August hit.

Basketball:

Player blocks, steals, and rebounds
Tip: The WNBA often has lower scoring props than the NBA

Ice Hockey

Total Goals
Player total points
Player shots on goal
Team goals/shots

Soccer:

Total goals

Tennis

Spread (The number of games won by each player)
Tip: Smaller AT tournaments are best of 3 sets for men and women, while Grand Slams are best of 5 - so smaller tournaments = less variability!

Things to know before you bet:

Stick to low scoring markets if you're a rookie. Everyone is different, but I do not really touch middle bets that are high variability (like player passing yards) unless the middle is super-enticing. A rough guide is if the middle distance is around 4% or higher of the total, it's probably worth a look
Be cautious of Loss %. Anything that can be hedged to a reasonable degree and has points differentials can be a Middle Bet in theory, but don't be fooled into finding your own with terrible odds. If I offset a -141 bet with a -176 bet, you're potentially losing 18% of your stake, and that means you need 1 in 5 of your bets to come off, which can be difficult to achieve.
It can be 'Too good to be true'. Sportsbooks sometimes get their internal odds wrong, and they can appear for a time in their database (which is where we get our data) while automated flags prevent them showing on their front end. This is why you sometimes can't find a certain batter or pitcher at a sportsbook.

A golden rule in MLB is that if you find an over 0.5, under 1.5 bet (where the batter only has to get 1 hit/run/RBI/single to win the middle), check it, but assume it's a huge mistake and one that is unlikely to be 'real'.
Adjust your stakes! My final advice is to start small. I first started betting middles with a $10 'guide price', ie: no bet greater than that. Now I will place bets up to $100 on a selection. There's actually very little that can go wrong with Middle Bets, but getting to know your strategy before you start putting money into anything you're unfamiliar with is good practice.

Final Thoughts

Middles are one of my go-to bets every day. I'll check for certain bets - Total Receptions, for example - every day, and I'm always conscious of markets moving in the run up to an event. NFL markets are usually all set by Friday, but each sport varies.

Most importantly, Middle bets are - to me - the most fun way to bet with data. You have plenty of markets, you can apply your own knowledge, but you have a huge potential jackpot every time.

My instinct is always to place Middles over Parlays. You're getting the same types of payout, without any of the pain.

Still need help?

Drop us an email at contact@pickwatch.com or hit the Intercom support button in the bottom right of your screen, and you can chat to us. We're here to help you understand what you're doing, and we'll happily explain anything you don't understand!

Alternatively, check out the Discord channel for Middle Bets right here

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