After a 4-0 performance last week I'm looking for a similar result this week, but as you no doubt realise, the matchups are getting tighter and the games harder to call as we go on. The talent gap is pretty much closed at the top and the biggest question mark remaining is that of the dreaded 'bye week curse' that will inevitably dump one or more of the division winners out in a hail of blood and endless recriminations... Hang on, I've confused this with that whole Syria thing...
As always (ie: for the second week in a row), the consensus opinions of the best and worst analysts we track are given below my own picks to give you a flavour of which way the experts are going on each matchup. It's worth checking out our postseason standings to see how people called games last week too.

Ravens @ Broncos
Top 5 analysts: *Broncos (0-5)
*Bottom **5 4**** analysts: **Broncos (0-4)
Pretty unsurprising consensus pick here as the consistently excellent Broncos face a Ravens team that was just about convincing enough against Indianapolis to warrant a second look this week. Then we all laughed, shook our heads, and remembered that Peyton Manning will pick this Ravens D apart like they're NFL Europe players.

A lot is made of Manning's influence, but I think the big key factor will actually be the Broncos D, which has consistently put pressure on opposing QB's over the season and against whom Joe Flacco had a medium-sized nightmare earlier in the year. Flacco doesn't respond well to pass-rushers in his grill, so expect to see Von Miller and co. on your screens early and often, and expect to see Joe Flacco on his back a lot too.

49ers @ Packers

Top 5 analysts: Packers (1-4)
Bottom 5 4 **analysts** Packers (1-3)

Like most people this is one of the games that gives me a headache, but I've resolved to follow the Pack in more ways than one (really top notch punning there) and plump for Green Bay, who currently have somewhere around 70% approval from the Pickwatch analysts. Again, this isn't based on any perceived flaws in either offence, it is more to do with the defences, which are currently heading in opposite directions.

I think Justin Smith was such a crucial part of the 49ers D that it's impossible to overlook his contribution to Aldon Smith's pursuit of the sack record during the season, which fizzled out in mediocrity after week 14. I thought he had a really disruptive first half against the Patriots in week 15 which isn't reflected in the stats, but since half time of that game he has looked ineffective and potentially hurt. I'm not sure Justin Smith is ready to play, or whether the 49ers have realised that their pass rush isn't anywhere near as potent without him and are rushing him back. My guess is this won't end well, particularly against an athletic QB in Aaron Rodgers.

Couple all of that with a healthy Green Bay defence that has a lot of momentum after facing Joe Webb's circus-style performance last week, and you have a recipe for a Packers win.

Seahawks @ Falcons

Top 5 analysts: Falcons (2-3)
Bottom **5 4analysts:** Falcons (1-3)
I'm loath to go against the Seahawks, because if there's one team that has really made me feel confident in how they're approaching games on a week to week basis and responding to challenges within those individual contests, it's Seattle. My head says Atlanta have a huge advantage at home, which is true, and the Seahawks are notoriously poor heading to the East coast for a 1pm EST timeslot, but these Seahawks aren't the 'hawks of days gone by.

This one comes down to rhythm and a huge battle of strength vs strength in the Seattle secondary. My problem with Matt Ryan this season has been that while I consider him to be one of the best in the league, too often for reasons unknown, he and the offence have just failed to get going when they're expected to. I think there's an element of expectation that they're struggling with and they will often play a strange type of ball when in that type of situation. It's almost like they're striving to be clever and prove a point. On the defensive side of the ball, John Abraham is hobbled after an ankle injury in week 17 which doesn't bode well.

The Seattle offence is kind of funny because there's no real guile to them, it's a ground and pound attack with a QB who just plays on instinct, which is pretty fun to watch. They're effective and most importantly, they're adaptable as they proved last week when they went down two scores early on against the Redskins. They're missing Chris Clemons but I think Bruce Irvin will be their primary pass rusher this week, which isn't a bad thing. All in all, I'd rather know my best pass rusher was out and gameplan for that, than do what the Falcons are doing and pushing John Abraham in when he may not be too effective against a team that runs a good read-option with a QB in Wilson who is quick-witted enough to adjust on the fly.

The more I think about it, the more I like Seattle, and the more I think back to the last time the Falcons played a truly dominant defence in week 11 against Arizona, where Ryan had 5 picks and they won through Arizona's ineptitude as much as their own offensive performance. Food for thought against a ball-hawking secondary...

Texans @ Patriots

Top 5 **analysts**: Patriots (0-5)
Bottom **5 4analysts:** Patriots (0-4)
One thing the Pats did really well in week 13 was shut down Arian Foster and the Texans' run game, but remember that Houston were 3 scores down by half time so it's no surprise that their commitment to the run waned. In the Wild Card round the Texans were able to take advantage of a Bengals team that was actually quite inconsistent and ineffective in the latter weeks of the season, like themselves. In contrast, the Patriots finished with 2 wins and even in their solitary loss in the later stages against San Francisco, they were close to pulling off a huge comeback.

Put simply, the Patriots have been consistently good and the Texans haven't. At all. That's not my only consideration, but Houston haven't done much in the last few weeks to show that they're ready to come back to New England and win a game.

No joking around this week. Just pure, hard, solid picks.