Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight as the Denver Broncos head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In typical fashion, my props went 0-3 for TNF coming off an undefeated week, but that will not stop me from finding the best damn player props on the board for you fine folk. With only one game tonight, I have decided to give you the three-best props from the top sportsbook in the country, BetMGM.
If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
Let's pick out some winners.
KJ Hamler Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115):
I typically do not like taking unders on receiving props for a few reasons. First of all, the over is never dead, no matter what, and secondly, while I have a good understanding of the game, I don't know for certain what the game plan is for Denver. However, I believe at this point that Hamler is a good bet to go under.
In four games this season, Hamler has two catches for 65 yards, and he only has four targets on the season. Part of that is because Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are just overwhelmingly better, but it also does not help Hamler's cause that Denver's offense makes me, and you want to puke. The Broncos are putting up 15 points per game, 0.236 points per play, 5.4 yards per play, and they are only converting in the red zone on 21.4% of their trips.
Statistically, the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but Hamler only played 39 snaps last week and is averaging 26.7 snaps per game. Not only will the offense limit his potential, but he is just not getting enough opportunities.
Austin Ekeler Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-120):
Denver is being carried by their defense so far this season as they are ranked third in scoring (16), fourth in yards per play (4.7), and they only allow 1.2 touchdowns per game. However, their rush defense has been just ok.
The Broncos are allowing 112.4 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per rush, and they are ranked 17th in Rush DVOA. Los Angeles passes the ball 40 times per game, but going up against this secondary might change things just a touch. Denver is ranked first in pass DVOA, and they are only allowing 5.2 yards per pass and 176.6 passing yards per game.
Ekeler has only gone over this number twice on the season, but in those games he goes over this number (which happens to be the last two games the Chargers have played), Ekeler is averaging 116.5 rushing yards per game and 7.7 yards per rush.
He is also coming off a 173-yard day against Cleveland last week, which may not be saying much since the Browns have one of the worst front sevens in the NFL, but he has been running the ball well as of late, and if this game goes how I think it will, he should get a ton of touches tonight.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Justin Herbert (+750):
I don't know what it is, but whenever the Chargers play in primetime, I always end up loving Herbert's touchdown prop.
As I just said, Denver's rush defense is pretty mediocre, and while Herbert is not a "mobile quarterback," the guy can absolutely move. He has yet to run in a touchdown this season, but he has eight rushing touchdowns so far in his career, with half of them coming against AFC West teams with average rush defenses, which is exactly what Herbert will be going up against tonight.
Los Angeles is a passing team, but Denver's secondary is as good as any in the NFL, and I can see the Chargers keeping the ball on the ground tonight as they try to drain the clock and beat up a defense that has gotten killed on the ground.
Best Bet: Under 45.5:
You know what, I do not care that the primetime unders are on an 0-2 run, I am sticking to my guns.
Neither offense has been THAT impressive this season, but there is a clear better team here. Los Angeles' offense is ranked eighth in scoring (24.4), ninth in yards per play (5.9), and 11th in points per play (0.366). Like I said earlier, this is a passing team, but they are going up against a great pass defense. Given how successful the Chargers have been on the ground over the last two weeks, I would, and I am betting on them to do the same against Denver.
That also means that the Broncos are going to play catchup the entire game, which means we once again get to witness a fully-powered Russell Wilson-led Denver Broncos offense, which has been very enjoyable to laugh at from a distance this season. I am also in on the Chargers -3.5, but my best play of the night is to ride the primetime unders.