Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 1/5/2025 1:00 PM EST

We have your Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Buffalo Bills hit the road to face the New England Patriots.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Odds Info

Best Moneyline Odds: Buffalo Bills -135 (DraftKings) / New England Patriots +115 (BetMGM)
Best Spread Odds: 2.5 - Buffalo Bills -110 (Caesars) / New England Patriots -110 (Caesars)
Best Total Odds: 37.5 - Under -110 (bet365) / Over -110 (bet365)

Game Info

Date: 1/5/2025
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
TV: CBS

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the past two seasons, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills have faced each other three times. In these matchups, the Bills have emerged victorious twice, while the Patriots have claimed one win. Notably, all three games were won by the home team, with the visiting team failing to secure a victory. Against the spread, the Patriots have consistently outperformed expectations, covering the spread in all three encounters, while the Bills have not covered the spread in any of these games. In terms of total points, the games have gone over the set over-under line twice and under once, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games in this matchup.

The most recent game between these two teams took place on December 22, 2024, with the Buffalo Bills securing a narrow 24-21 victory over the New England Patriots. The Patriots initially took a 14-0 lead, thanks to a 28-yard touchdown pass from Drake Maye to Kayshon Boutte and a 14-yard rushing touchdown by Rhamondre Stevenson. However, the Bills responded with a 46-yard rushing touchdown by James Cook, followed by a 4-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to Cook, tying the game at 14-14. A 50-yard field goal by Tyler Bass put the Bills ahead, and a fumble return touchdown by Taron Johnson extended their lead to 24-14. The Patriots managed to close the gap with a 9-yard touchdown pass from Maye to Hunter Henry, but ultimately fell short. Key statistics from this game include the Patriots' 379 total yards and 28 first downs compared to the Bills' 324 total yards and 19 first downs. Turnovers played a significant role, with the Patriots committing three turnovers to the Bills' one.

In the two other games from the past two seasons, the Bills won 27-21 on December 31, 2023, and the Patriots claimed a 29-25 victory on October 22, 2023. In the December 2023 game, the Bills were the home team and managed to secure the win despite the Patriots covering the spread. The game went over the total points line, with the Bills' defense capitalizing on three interceptions. In the October 2023 matchup, the Patriots, playing at home, overcame a fourth-quarter surge by the Bills to win by four points. This game also went over the total points line, with both teams displaying strong offensive performances. Overall, these matchups have been closely contested, with turnovers and home-field advantage playing crucial roles in the outcomes.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Preview

The upcoming clash between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium presents a unique scenario for both teams. The Bills, having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, are expected to rest several key starters, including quarterback Josh Allen, who will likely play only briefly to maintain his consecutive starts streak. This strategic decision underscores Buffalo's focus on entering the postseason healthy and ready, with backup Mitch Trubisky anticipated to take the reins for the majority of the game.

On the other side, the Patriots find themselves in a precarious position. With a dismal 3-13 record, a loss would guarantee them the coveted No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Despite this, head coach Jerod Mayo has expressed a desire to finish the season on a high note, emphasizing the importance of building momentum and evaluating talent for the future. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has shown flashes of potential despite a challenging season, is expected to start, although there is speculation about the extent of his participation given the potential draft implications and his recent hand injury.

Historically, the Patriots have managed to cover the spread in their recent encounters with the Bills, despite Buffalo winning two of the last three matchups. The most recent meeting saw the Bills narrowly defeat the Patriots 24-21, with turnovers playing a pivotal role. As the Patriots aim to end their season with a victory, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities presented by Buffalo's second-string lineup.

For the Bills, this game offers a chance to set a franchise record with 14 regular-season wins, albeit with a roster primarily composed of backups. The Patriots, meanwhile, are playing for pride and the potential to disrupt Buffalo's plans, all while navigating the delicate balance between securing a top draft pick and fostering a winning culture. As both teams take the field, the dynamics of this matchup promise an intriguing end to the regular season.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline

As the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the New England Patriots in their regular-season finale, the strategic landscape heavily favors the Bills, even with their decision to rest key starters. The Bills have already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, allowing them to approach this game with a focus on maintaining health and readiness for the postseason. Despite this, the Bills' depth and the quality of their bench players provide a significant advantage over a struggling Patriots team.

Buffalo's decision to start Josh Allen briefly to preserve his consecutive starts streak before handing the reins to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky is a testament to their confidence in their roster depth. Trubisky, while not a starter, is a competent backup who can manage the game effectively against a Patriots team that has been one of the worst in the league this season. The Bills' defense, which has been relentless in recent weeks, will also look to capitalize on any mistakes made by the Patriots' offense, which has struggled significantly, as evidenced by their 40-7 loss to the Chargers last week.

On the other hand, the Patriots, despite having the incentive to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a loss, are caught in a dilemma. Head coach Jerod Mayo has expressed a desire to win, but the reality of their situation and the potential benefits of a top draft pick cannot be ignored. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has shown potential, is expected to start, but his participation might be limited due to a recent hand injury and the draft implications. The Patriots' roster, which has been described as devoid of talent, faces an uphill battle against even a second-string Bills lineup.

Historically, the Patriots have managed to cover the spread in recent encounters with the Bills, but the overall talent gap and the Bills' ability to execute even with backups make them the more likely victors. The Bills have won five of the last six matchups against the Patriots, and with the Patriots' current form, it is reasonable to expect Buffalo to extend this dominance. Given these factors, the Buffalo Bills are the favored pick on the moneyline, as they are well-positioned to secure a victory despite resting their starters.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Top Player Prop Picks

Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +150 (DraftKings)

Drake Maye has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season for the New England Patriots. Despite the team's struggles, Maye has shown flashes of potential, particularly in their recent matchup against the Buffalo Bills, where he threw for two touchdowns. With the Bills expected to rest many of their starters, including key defensive players, Maye will have an opportunity to exploit a less formidable defense. Additionally, the Patriots have historically managed to cover the spread against the Bills, indicating that they can keep the game competitive. Given Maye's determination to end the season on a high note and his ability to perform under pressure, betting on him to throw over 1.5 touchdowns presents a valuable opportunity.

Mitch Trubisky Under 200.5 Passing Yards -110 (Caesars)

With Josh Allen expected to play only briefly to maintain his consecutive starts streak, Mitch Trubisky will likely take over as the quarterback for the majority of the game. While Trubisky is a competent backup, the Bills' strategy will likely focus on a conservative game plan, emphasizing the run to minimize the risk of injuries and keep the clock moving. The Patriots' defense, despite its shortcomings, will be motivated to end the season with a strong performance, especially with many players potentially playing for their future roles. Given these factors, Trubisky's passing opportunities may be limited, making the under on 200.5 passing yards a prudent choice.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 60.5 Rushing Yards -110 (bet365)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a key component of the Patriots' offense, and with the Bills resting several starters, he is poised to have a significant impact on the ground. In their previous encounter, Stevenson managed a 14-yard rushing touchdown, showcasing his ability to break through defenses. With the Patriots likely to lean on their running game to control the tempo and keep the Bills' offense off the field, Stevenson should see ample carries. The Bills' focus on preserving their starters for the playoffs further enhances the likelihood of Stevenson surpassing the 60.5 rushing yards mark, making this a strong prop bet.