There’s no way a site dedicated to tracking expert NFL picks could offer our own expert insights without tracking them, right?
Right.
This season, we’ve been showcasing our Pickwatch Pro Insights: exclusive, trend-based predictive metrics that can tell you who’s got an edge in this week’s upcoming NFL games. Our in-house analysts have been factoring them into their picks and guides all season long, but we haven’t shown you just how valuable our Pro Insights can be.
Here’s how they work. First, we gather six team stats across each team’s last fifteen games. Then, we assess how predictive holding an edge in each stat was for each matchup—both straight up, and against the spread. Based on who has the advantage in the most predictive stats, our algorithm picks a projected winner.
In this week’s Steelers/Browns matchup, the Browns are 3.5 point home favorites. The Steelers are the consensus pick against the spread, with 67 percent of top users and experts taking them and the points.
But our Pro Inisights show the three most-relevant stats for this matchup are scoring offense, rushing yards, and rushing yards allowed—and the Browns have a significant advantage in all three, so our Stats Insights model picks them to cover the 3.5.
Does it work?
Oh, yeah: So far in 2021, the teams our Stats Insights favor have a 70.38 percent win rate. If Stats Insights were a person on our leaderboard of 10,611 straight-up pickers, it’d be tied for 64th! There hasn’t even been a single losing week:
|
Straight Up |
|||
|
Week |
Wins |
Losses |
% |
|
1 |
10 |
6 |
62.5% |
|
2 |
12 |
4 |
75.0% |
|
3 |
9 |
7 |
56.3% |
|
4 |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
|
5 |
13 |
3 |
81.3% |
|
6 |
9 |
5 |
64.3% |
|
7 |
11 |
2 |
84.6% |
|
Total |
70.38% |
||
Of course, it’s harder to pick against the spread. But our ATS Stats Insights picks have won 64.48 percent of the time, with just one losing week out of seven!
|
ATS |
|||
|
Week |
Wins |
Losses |
% |
|
1 |
10 |
6 |
62.5% |
|
2 |
13 |
3 |
81.3% |
|
3 |
9 |
7 |
56.3% |
|
4 |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
|
5 |
13 |
3 |
81.3% |
|
6 |
8 |
6 |
57.1% |
|
7 |
9 |
4 |
69.2% |
|
Total |
64.48% |
||
That would be good enough for 7th on our ATS leaderboard—just ahead of CBS Sports’s Ryan Wilson, and just behind our two top experts: NFL Network’s Marc Sessler, and Sportsbook Wire’s Ken Pomponio.
Of course, nobody knows better than Pickwatch that hot pickers never stay hot forever—but our Pro Insights have been giving Pickwatch Pro subscribers a real edge.
