Hello, and welcome back to quick hits. Today, we do not have a lot of action, but that will not stop us from giving out the best bets of the day on the diamond, as well as on the ice.
I start my day every morning by logging onto my computer and checking the board for some winners. Now that basketball season is wrapping up, and football is still an annoying amount of time away, baseball is all we have for the next few months. Let's not get it twisted, I love baseball, but when it is the only sport on, it is kind of depressing.
Luckily, my two favorite baseball teams to bet on play today, and I love the value both of them are getting. If you have been tailing my baseball picks this season, you are probably starting to think I am pranking you by how many times I have given out both of these teams. But as I always say, baseball season means we have some lean months ahead of us. Trying to be a profitable baseball bettor is so damn hard, so my advice to all of you is to stick to what you know, and don't get too fancy with it.
We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
MLB:
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 84% Guardians
Run line: 76% Guardians
After starting the season with one of the top offenses in baseball, the Guardians went through a bit of a lull in May. However, with a very easy stretch of games to start June, Cleveland has won five of their last six, and they have a 120 wRC+ over the last week.
A big part of their offensive success comes from Jose Ramirez, who is playing at an unbelievable level after signing the biggest contract in franchise history this offseason. Coming into this game, Ramirez is slashing .291/.365/.551 with an OPS of 1.024. He also leads the league in RBI (53), and while his hard-hit rate is slightly down, his K% is down to just 7%, and his ISO of .341 shows that he can still hit for power.
Cleveland will be sending out Cal Quantrill, who is starting to settle in after a rough start to the season. Quantrill has pitched over 6.0 IP in his last seven starts, and he is going up against a Rangers' offense that is ranked 19th in wRC+ (96), and on the road, the Rangers have only scored 103 runs.
Pick: Guardians ML (-112)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 54% Mets
Run line: 56% Padres
The Mets have been one of my favorite teams to watch, and bet on for a reason. They come into this game ranked second in runs (286), third in wRC+ (116), and first in OBP (.335) and AVG (.264). Against lefties, the Mets have been even better, and they get a struggling Blake Snell tonight.
On the season, Snell has only made four starts, but over his last three, he has given up eight earned runs in 15 innings, and his walk rate of 13.5% is concerning, especially against such a good New York lineup. The Padres have been able to hold their own without Fernando Tatis Jr., but they still only have a 93 wRC+, and they are ranked 29th in hard-hit rate (34.7%).
San Diego will go up against Carlos Carrasco, who has been quietly pretty solid for the Mets. Carrasco was kind of forgotten after he was a part of the Francisco Lindor trade, but this season he holds a 3.63 ERA, and a FIP of 2.93.
The Mets are slight underdogs on the road tonight, but New York is an impressive 18-11 SU in their away games, and they have won four of their last five against the Padres. I am all over the Mets tonight. I am taking them F5, ML, over team total, and I may sprinkle on Pete Alonso's anytime HR prop (+330).
For the sake of giving out one best bet, I will officially take the Mets on the ML for value purposes.
Pick: Mets ML (+102)
NHL:
Colorado Avalanche vs. Edmonton Oilers
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 65% Avalanche
Puck Line: 61% Oilers
Every time I watch the Colorado Avalanche, I am amazed that a team can be that electrifying on ice. Colorado is 6-0 on the road in the playoffs, and they are putting the puck in the net 4.5 times per game in their 13 games this postseason. Even though they're going up against the best player on the planet in Connor McDavid, the Avalanche have not blinked, as they are looking to sweep the Oilers tonight and advance to the Cup Finals.
Game 3 in Edmonton was brutal for the Oilers, and it seems as though all life has been sucked out of this team, and their fanbase. However, I think we have some significant value with the Orange and Blue tonight. They are currently plus-money on the ML, and the Oilers are 32-14-2 on their home ice this season, and they have won 16 of their last 20 at home.
I just find it hard to believe that McDavid is going to get swept out of the Conference Finals. The offense has been finding the back of the net all playoffs, including this series, they just have had no answers for the high-flying Avalanche. With their backs against the wall, especially at their barn, I believe the Oilers pull this one out and send this series back to Colorado.
Pick: Oilers ML (+112)
Photo: Getty Images
