Ball State Cardinals @ Purdue Boilermakers Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/30/2025 12:00 PM EDT

We have your Ball State Cardinals @ Purdue Boilermakers prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Ball State Cardinals hit the road to face the Purdue Boilermakers.

Ball State Cardinals @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Purdue -800.0 [Caesars] | Ball State +650.0 [BetMGM]
Best Spread Odds: Purdue -16.5 (-125.0) [ESPN BET] | Ball State +17.5 (-114.0) [BetRivers]
Best Total Odds: Over 49.5 (-110) [Fanduel] | Under 50.5 (-115) [BetMGM]

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-30
Time: 12:00 PM EDT
Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana
TV: Big Ten Network (BTN)

Ball State Cardinals @ Purdue Boilermakers Preview

The college football season kicks off with an intriguing matchup as the Ball State Cardinals visit the Purdue Boilermakers. Both programs are embarking on new eras, having made significant leadership changes in the offseason. Purdue welcomes new head coach Barry Odom, known for his defensive background and recent success at UNLV, while Ball State brings in Mike Uremovich, who had a highly successful offensive-minded tenure at Butler (FCS).

The unknown factor is high for both teams, as they've undergone massive roster overhauls. Purdue has brought in over 50 transfer portal players, and Ball State has 53 new faces on its roster. This makes Week 1 a true test of how quickly these new pieces can gel under their respective new systems.

For the Boilermakers, quarterback Ryan Browne has been named the starter. He's seen limited action over the past two seasons but has shown flashes of potential. A key returning piece for Purdue is running back Devin Mockobee, who is ninth all-time in program history with 2,466 rushing yards and has proven to be a reliable target in the passing game with 68 career catches. The offensive line has been significantly bolstered by transfers from prominent programs like Georgia, Notre Dame, and Auburn, which should provide a solid foundation. On defense, Purdue will look to returners like defensive end Trey Smith, cornerback Tony Grimes (29 career starts), and safeties Tahj Ra-El and Crew Wakley to lead a unit that is also integrating new talent.

Ball State's offense will be spearheaded by mobile quarterback Kiael Kelly, who showcased his dual-threat ability in 2023 with 724 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in part-time duty. He'll have established wideouts like Qian Magwood and Ty Robinson, along with Bucknell transfer Eric Weatherly, who brings impressive career receiving numbers. Defensively, coordinator Jeff Knowles returns, and the Cardinals will rely on players like nose tackle Darin Conley, middle linebacker Joey Stemler (15 starts), and safety Michael Gravely Jr. to improve upon a defense that struggled in 2024.

While both teams are in rebuilding phases, Purdue, as a Big Ten program, is generally expected to possess a higher talent ceiling compared to a MAC opponent like Ball State. Last season, Purdue finished 1-11, and Ball State went 3-9, setting the stage for a fresh start for both.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Purdue has historically dominated this series, holding an 8-0 all-time record against Ball State. Notably, all eight of Purdue's victories have been by double-digit margins, showcasing a consistent advantage over the Cardinals.

The most recent encounters, however, have been closer contests. Purdue secured a 38-28 win in 2006 and a 24-13 victory in 2010. Despite these losses, Ball State managed to cover the spread in both of those games, indicating their ability to keep games within betting lines even when facing a superior opponent. For instance, in the 2010 matchup, Ball State was a +16.5 underdog. Furthermore, recent trends show that the total has gone OVER in 9 of Ball State's last 12 games, and the Cardinals have been a strong bet against the spread, going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -16.5

Despite the significant roster turnover and new coaching staff for both teams, the Purdue Boilermakers are poised to cover the -16.5 spread against the Ball State Cardinals. As a Big Ten program, Purdue inherently possesses a talent advantage over Ball State, a MAC team. While Week 1 can be unpredictable due to new systems and personnel, the sheer volume of talent brought in by Coach Barry Odom, particularly on the offensive line and with a proven running back like Devin Mockobee, should allow Purdue to establish control.

Ball State's mobile quarterback Kiael Kelly could pose an early challenge, but Purdue's defensive coordinator, Odom, is known for his ability to leverage his defense against run-heavy opponents. One handicapper, Dana Lane, specifically highlighted Purdue's ability to frustrate Ball State's running game and anticipates that Odom will want to make an impressive debut in West Lafayette, suggesting the Boilermakers won't ease up late in the game. Given Purdue's historical dominance in this series, winning all previous matchups by double figures, and their enhanced depth, they are well-positioned to secure a convincing victory and cover the spread