We have another full slate of baseball tonight, and you know what that means. It is once again time to give our best bets of the night on the diamond.
It has been a little bit since I have given out some picks, and that is for multiple reasons. It is mostly because I have been ice-cold, and have been enjoying my classic "just temporarily retire from betting when you go cold." The way my betting career has worked since I started many years ago is that I am either red-hot, or I just cannot buy a winner.
A couple of days off have cleared my head, and I am ready to give out some winners once again. What better way to start than with a full slate of baseball? We may only have two picks tonight, and once again, one of the teams I have been riding all season appears on my card, but I absolutely love the value when are getting with our two best bets.
Anyway, let's get into the picks. We would love for you to tail my picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 89% Guardians
Runline: 58% Royals
At face value, Cal Quantrill's stats have not been that impressive. Coming into this game, he has a 3.42 ERA with a WHIP of 1.225. However, he has gone at least 6.0 IP in his last six starts, and his only win of the season came against the Royals back during the first series of the season. Quantrill has been inconstant for Cleveland this season, but his HR/9 is down to 0.57, and he has dominated the Royals in his career. In 28.2 IP against Kansas City in his career, Quantrill has only allowed nine earned runs and seven extra-base hits.
On the other side, the Royals will throw out lefty Daniel Lynch, who picked up his third win of the season in his last time out against the Twins, throwing 5.1 innings and only giving up two earned runs. Like Quantrill, Lynch has been inconsistent, but he has been a solid option for a struggling Royals team. Against Cleveland, Lynch has given up 11 earned runs in three career starts, and the Guardians are hitting .344 off Lynch.
The Guardians' offense was once ranked inside the top 10 in most offensive categories, but a disastrous end of May has seen Cleveland fall to 17th in runs, 14th in wRC+, and 18th in OBP. The numbers get even worse when they go up against lefties, as the Guardians are ranked 28th in wRC+, 26th in OBP, and 25th in runs.
However, the Royals are even worse at the plate, as they are ranked 26th in runs, 23rd in wRC+, and 24th in OPS. It also does not help that Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez have both been awful at the plate. The Royals enter this game with a record of 16-31, and a run differential of -68. To put it simply, the Royals are REALLY bad.
The Guardians have an easy stretch of games coming up, and it starts with the Royals. I think Cleveland is going to have some significant value on the ML over the next few weeks, so take them while their value favors the public. The bats are slowly starting to wake back up for Cleveland, and they have outscored the Royals 35-17 in five games this season.
Pick: Guardians ML (-126)
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 93% Blue Jays
Runline: 53% Blue Jays
Heading into the season, both the White Sox and Blue Jays had two of the more interesting offenses in baseball. That has not necessarily been true as we are closing in on the 50-game mark of the season, but the Blue Jays have caught fire recently. During their five-game winning streak, Toronto is averaging seven runs per game, and they only failed to score 5+ runs once during that stretch. As a whole, Toronto is still ranked 16th in wRC+ and 24th in runs, but over the last week, the Blue Jays' offense is ranked ninth in runs, third in AVG, fourth in hard-hit rate, and second in wRC+.
For the White Sox, things are not going great right now. With Tim Anderson heading to the IL, a struggling Chicago offense losses their best pound-for-pound hitter. Although Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, and Andrew Vaughn all have a wRC+ over 110, the White Sox offense is ranked 26th in wRC+, 28th in runs, and 29th in hard-hit rate.
The good news for the White Sox is that Lucas Giolito is getting the start tonight, and his stuff has been as electric as ever, but he is getting hit hard, with a hard-hit rate of 41.4% and a Barrel% of 10.3%. The bad news for Chicago is that Toronto will be sending out Kevin Gausman, who currently has the second-best odds to win the AL Cy Young, and that is for good reason. His stuff has been dominant this season.
Gausman has the best O-Swing% in the league, which tells us that he is getting the most batter to chase pitches outside the zone, and he enters tonight with a 2.25 ERA and a FIP of 1.31. Going up against a struggling lineup plays really well for Gausman, who probably has been the best pitcher in the AL this season, despite not being the betting favorite for the Cy Young as of this moment (Justin Verlander +450).
The Blue Jays are finally starting to live up to their expectations while the White Sox look completely lost, and the release of Dallas Keuchel indicates just how badly this team is underachieving. I am not a big fan of betting on the runline, especially since the Blue Jays are only 8-14 ATS at home this season, but these teams are trending in opposite directions, and Toronto has the best pitcher in the AL on the mound tonight. Getting them at plus-value is well worth a play.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
Photo: Getty Images
