This article series often highlights the varied paths to victory teams can take in a contest and goes with the club that has more of those paths in its favor.

Since this game has two powerhouse offenses, there is a very good chance that this contest turns into a high scoring game. San Francisco has a combined 5-3 record in shootouts (games where each team scores 24+ points) or near shootouts (where one club posts 24+ points and the other team tallies 20+ points, so they fare well in high scoring games, but Green Bay has a 7-2 mark in shootouts/near shootouts and therefore is probably better suited for that type of matchup.

The big concern for the Packers is that in Weeks 14-16 they allowed 499 rushing yards to Chicago, Baltimore, and Cleveland and gave up 82 points in those games, including 30 points in consecutive matchups against very banged up Bears and Ravens offenses. That is a major concern versus a San Francisco offense that has tallied 479 rushing yards in its last three games that included matchups against the Rams and Dallas.

The 49ers defense also could present a challenge for the Packers, as San Francisco gave up only 41 combined points against the Rams and Dallas over the past two weeks (with the Cowboys scoring only one touchdown). The 49ers have also allowed fewer than 90 rushing yards in nine of their past ten games.

Having noted these potential advantages for San Francisco, the biggest concern for the 49ers is that Green Bay has posted two or more takeaways in 11 games this year and has at least one takeaway in ten games this year and the Packers undefeated when they get at least one takeaway this year. That is a potentially major problem against a 49ers offense that has posted at least one giveaway in five straight games and has a quarterback dealing with a thumb injury.

Add it all up and it says that while Green Bay is a flawed team with issues, they are at home and should get better much more consistent quarterback play, so the Packers get this pick in this one.

KC’s pick: Green Bay | Confidence level: 3

Lambeau Field

Week 20 01/22/2022 20:15 ET

11° Light Snow