Every week we give you some pick'em lessons we learned in the previous week that will influence how you could pick games in future, plus various pick'em related stats and facts. Here's our take on week 10
One For The Road
Road teams have won more than 50% of games just once this season (week 5, road teams went 8-6), so it stands to reason that there was bound to be a week like this, where not only did our 'Road Teams' stat finish above .500, but also finished ahead of any expert's picks this week on 11-3, thanks to road upsets like that of the Texans (above) beating the undefeated Bengals.
If you're thinking of a contrarian strategy, you're not alone - last week road teams were favored by Vegas in just two matchups (New Orleans to beat Washington and New England to beat the Giants). In week 11 that number rises to 4 teams, with the Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders and Jets all backed to win in opening lines.
QB Carousel Keeps Turning
Brian Hoyer's concussion tonight means there'll be 4, perhaps even 5 QB changes in week 11.
Tony Romo needs no discussion - he'll be an immediate boost for the Cowboys and should be a big catalyst for their offense.
Nick Foles being benched probably helps if you like the Rams D and their run first offense, with Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin the focal points. I'd say that provided Case Keenum isn't prone to anything too self-destructive, the Rams may actually be a better bet under his stewardship.
The Eagles are another story. For all Sam Bradford has been a bit flaky this season, he is infinitely their best QB, and that won't change now that teams will be preparing for Mark Sanchez. The Eagles are huge favorites and opened at -7 vs the Bucs this week, but I'd expect that number to be closer to -5 by kick off. Even now, it is down to -5.5.
The Texans we don't know about yet. A home game against the Jets is winnable if the Jets struggle on offense, but they're certainly not more likely to win with TJ Yates instead of Brian Hoyer.
Finally, there's Peyton Manning. What can we say that hasn't already been written? Well for starters, the Broncos head into Chicago next week, and the weather may well dip below freezing for the first time in the windy city this week. Would you have liked Manning at Soldier Field, vs his old coach? The Bears aren't a great defense and they have their own worries at QB, but Manning's cold weather struggles since his neck surgery are well documented. If anything, Brock Osweiler may legitimately have been the Broncos' best shot at winning this week, injuries or not.
Teams to trust...
If we had to make a list of trustworthy teams, it'd be damn short, but here's some teams that seem to perform around their estimated level. That doesn't mean they win every game, it means they lose the ones you think they'll lose, and win the ones you don't.
- New England - reliable, even vs the spread (5-2-2)
- Carolina - 9-0 and 7-2 vs the spread, they win games and handily
- Minnesota - Never quite favored too much, they're in and around every game, never outplayed completely. They're 8-1 vs the spread and a pick'em v Green Bay next week
Teams Not to Trust...
And the reverse is true of these teams:
- Atlanta - Lost 5 straight vs the spread and lost against 3 teams they were favored against. Not a good run, and a -6 spread vs Indy...
- New Orleans - High powered offense keeps them in games, novel approach of no secondary means concede lots of points. Unpredictable.
- Chicago - They've beaten 4 teams they were underdogs against. Next week it's Denver in an aformentioned cold weather game, vs Brock Osweiler and co. They have a chance at another upset and a clean sweep of the AFC West...
The Chiefs have a nice run in
Nobody has a kinder run in, or a hotter streak than the Chiefs right now. They'll face the Raiders and Chargers twice, plus the Bills and Browns at home, and travel to Baltimore. That's about as good a spot to be in when you haven't given up more than 15pts in the last 3 games.
Counting against them is that the teams they've beaten - Denver, Detroit and Pittsburgh - were all in a rough QB situation when they played them. I feel that the Chargers and Raiders games (weeks 11 and 13) will give a better estimation of this team's true standing, but I'd expect them to be favored down the stretch except perhaps in Oakland.
