Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season.
NEW! Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
Editor's Note: Changes coming soon to Upset Watch
Last week I published a blog post detailing upcoming changes to Pickwatch and Upset Watch that I'd encourage you to read.
I have received a lot of positive feedback on the changes, and a number of users have commented that these changes are exactly what they have been hoping for, and also suggested a few more improvements that can be made, which we will factor into future decisions.
To read about our upcoming changes and share your feedback, click here.
Week 8 continued a run of 3 weeks where we've essentially broken even, albeit there's a caveat here, I'm being less than generous to myself on a pick that would have seen us make a profit.
I called the 49ers to win and they ended up as underdogs, but I am not including them in our profit because of the timing and the fact I didn't send a specific email out about it. Either way, the pick was clear enough that I would imagine it helped many people pick a close game on paper!
Apart from that, we hit on 2 bigger underdog wins, the Broncos beating the Jags, and the Commanders beating the Colts on the road, plus we had the Cleveland cover on Monday that took us almost neutral on the week.
Frustratingly, the week for us really was decided by 3 muffed punts, 2 for the Giants, and 1 for Arizona. The Cardinals, in particular, feel like one that got away and would have offered us a significant profit as our biggest odds of the week.
I also had planned to pick the Saints, as detailed in the column, but stuck with no pick. In the end, the Saints won, but again, there are no points for moral victories!
It's encouraging that at this stage of the season, our picks have been solid enough to avoid any major losses.
Season Performance
Our rolling season profit is still very strong, and it's pretty impressive that we have yet to have a week where we lost more than 10% of what we staked through 8 weeks. We've been so close to breaking the big one, and I sense, like many of the people I correspond with, that it will come in the next couple of weeks.
As always, we base our profit on betting $100 per bet, but the profit percentage (ROI) will be the same no matter what you bet.
I get asked this question a lot, about the best way to use the informationin Upset Watch/
I've transferred this section of Upset Watch to a separate article, as I attempt to make the weekly column easier to read, so if you want to see my tips for how to maximize profit alongside many thousands of other subscribers, check this link out.
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UPSET 25
Now let's pick some games.