Upset Watch: Week 2 Underdogs to pick

Upset Watch is back in week 2 after a 4-1 opening week, and we're ready for what is often the biggest week of the season for underdog victories.

Upset Watch

15 Sep, 2021

Share

Last week was a huge win for us and we’ll look to keep that up and take advantage of the huge opportunity.

 

I’ve changed the format ever so slightly this week to make it easier for people to quickly see the picks without reading my explanations, and then included my detailed explanations after that, but first, let’s look at a very successful week 1...

 

 

Last week’s results (+$4,674)

 

We went 4-1 in our upset win picks in an amazing start to the year. Remember that upsets are such that getting only 1-2 big ones right is usually enough for a profit in any given week, so getting 4 is huge.

 

Arizona, Pittsburgh, MIami and the Chargers all delivered outright wins as predicted, and only the Colts let us down.

Arizona were our most confident pick. Without doubt, that set a successful tone, and Pittsburgh’s entirely foreseeable victory against the Bills paid meant that a parlay of only those two picks would have yielded an $800 profit on a $100 bet. 

 

In total, if you put a $100 parlay on our four winning picks with BetMGM, you’d have won a massive $4,674 from the four winning picks.

 

 

A suggestion - Round Robins

 

If you’re betting our picks, don’t get greedy. If you put all 5 on together in a parlay, the chances of success are clearly low. However 3 or 4 out of 5? That could work.

Here’s an example bet slip using Round Robins. Instead of betting all your money on everyone winning, you bet $50 each all of the 5 combinations where 4 teams win. If any 4 teams win, you’ll receive the winning bet. If all 5 teams win, you’d receive the winnings for all of those 4 team bets.

 

 

This is a smarter way to bet multiple games and means that even if only some of your bets come off, you can still make money!

 

Number of Upsets and Underdog Covers

 

Ah week 2! My favorite week for... beating favorites.

 

Except last year. Week 2 last year generated just 2 upsets. It is the first time in over a decade that 2 or fewer underdogs won in the opening 4 weeks of the season. It’s very much a statistical anomaly, and while we can never rule out that happening again, we won’t use it as a basis for being conservative this season.

 

  • On average, there are 5.9 outright underdog wins in week 2.

  • On average, there are 9.0 underdog covers in week 2.

 

Why is week 2 so much fun to bet? Because the media and public do not know yet whether a loss in week 1 for a team like Buffalo is an indicator that this year may be bad, or whether they’ll immediately bounce back in week 2. 

 

Similarly, nobody knows if the Texans victory against the Jags was about how bad Jacksonville is, or how the Texans may be a better team than predicted.

 

 

Where will Upsets occur?

 

Almost 37% of week 2 games end in an underdog victory, and over 55% in the underdog covering. As you know from above, this means 6 winners and 9 covers from this week’s underdogs, but what should we be looking for?

 

Lets look at the anomaly. There are three teams with spreads in double figures. How do those teams do normally? Well, predictably, not well. In fact, they’re 0-8 since 2013. You could make a case that three in the same week being unusual in itself makes it more likely that one will triumph, but I’ll be avoiding them, and I think you should too.

 

Now let’s see where they do occur…

 

You can read the article and get all Pro features in every sport for just $22.50 for an entire year by using the code UPSET25 at the checkout!

Continue Reading

Get unlimited access with a Pickwatch Pro subscription

Already a subscriber?

Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat. Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat.

Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat. Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat.

Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat. Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat.

Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat. Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat.

Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat. Proin sapien nisi, bibendum et finibus sit amet, consequat sed lectus. Praesent in facilisis erat. Mauris ultricies nisi porttitor mi sagittis, a hendrerit velit fringilla. Vivamus libero velit, dapibus eget feugiat ut, vehicula et leo. Aenean sem tellus, eleifend id ullamcorper aliquam, condimentum venenatis quam. Nulla in scelerisque eros, non finibus dolor. Duis sapien diam, posuere eget lacus eget, molestie congue justo. Pellentesque at aliquam erat.