Welcome back to Upset Watch for 2023.

This offseason has felt like an eternity, but we're finally about to hit the NFL regular season, and that means it's also time for our annual Team win totals assessment. Each season I post 6-8 teams that I think will be either over or under their win total line for the season, using historical trends and our own proprietary data.

Upset Watch Improvements

I have lots of big news for you about Upset Watch, and what we have planned for you in 2023. I'll go into more detail in next week's Week 1 picks, but the quick hits are:

  1. Upset Watch will be getting a dedicated section on Pickwatch, launching in week 2, so you can scroll down through each game or jump to ones you like, or quickly jump to the list of picks

  2. The section will automatically populate every Tuesday with each game's unit vs unit weighted stats, so that you can browse before Wednesday's analysis and picks are added.

  3. The weighted stats will also be in their own section, so you can explore the rankings across the whole NFL.
  4. We have dramatically expanded the number of weighted stats that we cover, and will explore ways to make them public.

All of this means that Upset Watch will be much easier for you to read, much easier to skip to the bits you like most, and have more depth for those of you who want to explore the data yourself, rather than having me pull out snippets for you.

As always, it'll be the picks that you value most, but I know from talking to our readers that so many of you will welcome expansion of the data side of things, and a chance to browse and work with it yourselves.

Team win totals - How we do it

We take every team in our database over the last 7 years and analyze their situation heading into the season. Did they make a coaching change? Did they draft a rookie QB? Did they enter the second year of a QB? Did they expect their rookie to perhaps takeover during a season? Were they beset by injuries?

We then simply see how they did. Did they add wins on the previous season? Did they beat their over/under total?

Using this method, we can see trends based on player development, QB changes, and coaching changes, and we can then look ahead to this season and apply that logic to teams facing similar circumstances.

Here's what we found...

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