Welcome to Super Bowl Upset Watch!

Here we are, after a long season, and who would have thought the unfancied Kansas City Chiefs, the plucky upstarts who... oh no, wait, they're back. Again.

This week's rematch of 2023's Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles promises to be another thriller. We've got prop picks, points total predictions, and of course a final prediction for the game coming Friday.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best picks for the Super Bowl. Not a VIP member? sign up here!