Welcome to Upset Watch's Super Bowl preview.
Each week of the NFL season, we use weighted analytics to gauge the performance of every team, and predict the most likely underdog winners and covers of the week.
Underdog winners and covers generate an exceptional amount of profit on fewer picks than most. Upset Watch is the industry leader in this regard, notching +$2,870 profit in 2023, to go with +$3,360 in 2021, and +$1,500 in 2020.
That's over $7,500 profit in just 3 seasons.
In the playoffs this season, we're 11-1 picking winners, with only the (unforeseeable) 49ers loss to the Eagles catching us out. That means if any column can give you an accurate idea of which team is going to win a tight Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, it's this one.
So let us guide you through the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, as evidenced by analytics exclusive to Pickwatch.
Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
Well it had to happen eventually. Our luck ran out on the second series of the 49ers at Eagles game, when Niners QB Brock Purdy was injured. When his backup Josh Johnson was injured before the end of the 2nd quarter, any lingering hope of a miracle was extinguished.
It's a sad way to lose our 100% record of picking winners in the playoffs, as we'll never know whether the 49ers D - who held the Eagles to 3 straight punts, and were the victims of a poor 4th down call by the refs that would have halted the Eagles' first drive - could have won the game.
In the week's other game, we correctly predicted the Chiefs. The game was available as a Chiefs +1 at the time, but we called it a push as the line was heading back towards Kansas City, which meant both teams were available as underdogs, but with shorter odds. Thankfully, our assessment of the relative strengths of both teams was correct.
Season Performance
Last week's unforeseeable blip means we lose a record of 6 straight winning weeks. Some of you might still have broke even or even made a small profit, but most will have had a tiny loss of $5-10. Sometimes, those are the breaks!
On the season, our money line picks are +$1,295 (46.2%, 43-50-1) on the season, with average odds of +150. This far exceeds any performance among all NFL experts who have made over 85 NFL underdog picks this season, as you can see by viewing our Underdog metrics.
Our underdog cover picks are +$1,176 (71%, 22-9-2), which is also incredibly strong, and you can get a sense of how good this is by comparing with any expert who has made more than 10% of NFL ATS picks this season on our ATS pages.
I get asked this question a lot, about the best way to use the information in Upset Watch. For me, our $100 a pick metric serves to illustrate that the core picks are good, but there are ways to pick that are more complex and generate potentially bigger payouts.
I've transferred this section of Upset Watch to a separate article, as I attempt to make the weekly column easier to read, so if you want to see my tips for how to maximize profit alongside many thousands of other subscribers, check this link out.
Key Questions and subjects we'll discuss in this Super Bowl preview:
- What will the Eagles do on offense, and can the Chiefs defense stop them?
- How healthy is Patrick Mahomes, and does it matter?
- How much of a factor is the relative weakness of the Eagles schedule?
- Which of the two elite pass rushes will have the most success?
- Unit vs Unit weighted statistical breakdowns of the last 5 games for each team - accounting for QB injuries.
- Our pick to win Super Bowl LVII, including our simulated score projection.
