Welcome to the Divisional Round Upset Watch

After a solid start, we're back for another round of playoff upset watch. With only 7 games left of the season, upset picks become harder to forecast, but that doesn't make it impossible. We'll have a breakdown of every potential underdog winner as always, with our analysis largely coming on Friday once all injury reports are settled.

This is a tough slate, thanks to the 3 underdog winners in the wild card round that have presented us with three mismatches on paper. Then there's the game we've all been looking forward to since midseason, a matchup of elites in the Bills and Ravens, to be held in frigid temperatures on Sunday evening.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of the Divisional round. Not a VIP member? sign up here!