Welcome to the Conference Championship Upset Watch

We're down to the final four. The Commanders and Bills are underdogs heading on the road to try and beat the Eagles and Chiefs respectively. If the favorites win, we get a rematch of 2023's Super Bowl. If the underdogs win, we get a rematch of 1992's Super Bowl. We're putting our feelings aside and looking to assess the realistic chances of either team upsetting the odds, or beating the spread.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of the Divisional round. Not a VIP member? sign up here!