If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:

With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick. Last season, we had our third straight winning season, with a combined winning total of over +$8,000 in that time.

Starting every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning or covering than others. Often, these are teams that nobody in the media is picking.

To do this, we use historical trends and a proprietary weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance, to assess how well they are playing, and generate score predictions that help us make straight up, ATS and points total picks.

Why underdogs and not favorites?

Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks, with our average selection being +150. That means that with a win % of just 41%, you'd make a profit.

Since we began tracking our picks in the current format, our profits have been consistently good each season, as we add more data points and improve our methodology.

If you'd placed $100 on every underdog winner and cover pick we tipped over the last 3 years, you'd have won:

2020 profit: +$1,800
2021 profit: +$3,200
2022 profit: +$2,900

That's why people love us. The nature of what we do makes it hard. You won't win every pick, but the ones you do win will mean you return a bigger profit, and if you use consistent methods, they should do so more often.