Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/19/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Toronto Blue Jays hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Toronto Blue Jays -148 (FanDuel) / Pittsburgh Pirates +135 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: Toronto Blue Jays -1.0 -117 (BetRivers) / Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -130 (ESPN BET)
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 -115 (Caesars) / Under 8.0 -115 (BetRivers)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-19
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
TV: SNET

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays (73-53) head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (53-73) in the second game of their series. The Blue Jays, currently leading the AL East, are looking to bounce back after a 5-2 loss to the Pirates in Monday's matchup. Toronto boasts a potent offense, leading the league with a .268 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage, averaging 4.92 runs per game. However, they will be closely monitoring the status of star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who exited Monday's game with left hamstring tightness and is currently day-to-day.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, sitting at the bottom of the NL Central, snapped a two-game losing streak with their win over the Blue Jays. Despite their recent victory, the Pirates have struggled, losing seven of their last ten games and averaging just 3 runs per game, which is below their season average. Their pitching staff has been a bright spot, holding opponents to a .239 batting average, ranking 8th in the league.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be veteran right-hander Max Scherzer (3-2, 3.83 ERA). Scherzer has been in good form recently, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts, consistently pitching six or more innings. He has a strong career record against the Pirates, with a 5-2 record and a 2.79 ERA in 14 appearances. Countering for the Pirates is right-hander Mitch Keller (5-11, 4.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Keller is coming off a rough outing where he gave up six runs in four innings, but he had won four straight decisions prior to that. In his only previous career start against Toronto, he delivered a strong performance, allowing just one run over six innings with eight strikeouts in an 8-1 victory.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates currently lead the 2025 series against the Toronto Blue Jays 1-0, following their 5-2 victory on Monday, with an average margin of 3 runs. Historically, seven of the last eight head-to-head games between these two teams have concluded with fewer runs than the total. In their last 10 matchups, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.20 runs per game compared to the Pirates' 2.30 runs. Over the last three games, the Pirates have averaged 5.00 runs to the Blue Jays' 3.67 runs. Mitch Keller's only prior start against the Blue Jays resulted in an 8-1 Pirates win where he allowed just one run over six innings. Max Scherzer holds a career 5-2 record with a 2.79 ERA in 14 appearances against the Pirates.

Pick: Under 8.0 Total Runs

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The total for this game is set at 8.0 runs, and we are leaning towards the Under. The historical head-to-head trend strongly supports this, with seven of the last eight matchups between the Blue Jays and Pirates going under the total. PNC Park, the venue for this game, is also a slightly pitcher-friendly park, particularly for home runs, with a park factor of 76 for home runs, which tends to suppress scoring. Max Scherzer has a solid career track record against the Pirates, and despite Mitch Keller's recent struggles, he has previously shut down the Blue Jays offense in his only other start against them. The Pirates' offense has been struggling, averaging just 3 runs per game, which further supports a lower-scoring affair. Given these factors, the Under 8.0 runs at -115 odds on BetRivers presents a compelling pick.

Top Player Prop Picks

Max Scherzer Over Strikeouts

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Max Scherzer has a strong history of striking out Pittsburgh Pirates hitters. In his career against the current Pirates roster, he has recorded 31 strikeouts in 80 at-bats, which translates to an impressive 36.9% strikeout rate. Key Pirates hitters like Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham have strikeout rates of 38.6% and 42.9% respectively against Scherzer. While his overall strikeout totals haven't been "elite" this month, he has been efficient, pitching deep into games with a low ERA. This matchup against a Pirates lineup that has shown a tendency to strike out against him bodes well for Scherzer to hit the over on his strikeout prop.

Mitch Keller Over Strikeouts

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Mitch Keller has demonstrated the ability to generate strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays lineup. In his career against the current Blue Jays roster, he has a 21.2% strikeout rate (7 K in 30 AB). Several Blue Jays hitters have high strikeout percentages against Keller in limited plate appearances, including Daulton Varsho (40% K%), Alejandro Kirk (50% K%), and Bo Bichette (33.3% K%). While his last outing was rough, his previous success against Toronto and the individual matchups suggest he can rack up strikeouts in this game.

Andrés Giménez Over Total Bases

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Andrés Giménez has an excellent historical matchup against Mitch Keller. In his limited plate appearances against Keller, Giménez has recorded 3 hits in 6 at-bats, including a home run, resulting in a 0.500 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage. His wOBA against Keller is an outstanding 0.636. While this is a small sample size, it indicates a favorable individual matchup for Giménez to collect total bases in this contest.

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