Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 7/28/2025 7:05 PM EDT

We have your Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Tampa Bay Rays hit the road to face the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: -
Best Spread Odds: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-140)
Best Total Odds: -

Game Info

Date: 2025-07-28
Time: 7:05 PM EDT
Location: Yankee Stadium
TV: -

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees (56-48) are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays (53-53) in a crucial American League matchup. The Yankees come into this game with a slightly better record, having won 56.2% of the games they've been favored in this season (50-38). However, they've shown some vulnerability recently, losing their last six night games. The Rays, meanwhile, are at .500 for the season and have proven to be a tough opponent for the Yankees, especially on the road.

The pitching matchup features Joe Boyle (1-0, 1.42 ERA) for the Tampa Bay Rays and Max Fried (11-4, 2.69 ERA) for the New York Yankees. Fried has been a consistent ace for the Yankees this season, boasting a strong win-loss record and a solid ERA. Boyle, while having an impressive ERA in his limited appearances, will face a potent Yankees lineup at home. This game could potentially turn into a bullpen battle, adding another layer of intrigue to the contest.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The rivalry between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees has been closely contested this season, with the Yankees holding a narrow 4-3 lead in their season series. However, the Rays have had the upper hand recently, winning the last two games between these AL East rivals. Their most recent encounter on May 4 saw the Rays snatch a 7-5 victory.

Historically, the Yankees have dominated the overall series, claiming 81 wins compared to the Rays' 47. Despite this long-term trend, recent patterns suggest the Rays are finding ways to challenge the Yankees. Notably, the Rays have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against the Yankees following a road loss, indicating a resilience in these specific situations.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

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Despite the New York Yankees' overall better record and the home-field advantage, the Tampa Bay Rays present a compelling case for covering the spread. The Rays have demonstrated a knack for performing well as road underdogs against the Yankees, especially after a road loss, winning their last four such contests. Furthermore, the Yankees have struggled in recent night games, losing their last six, which could be a significant factor in this evening's matchup.

While Max Fried is a formidable pitcher for the Yankees, the Rays have shown they can put up runs against them, as evidenced by their 7-5 victory in the last head-to-head game. The movement of the run line in Tampa Bay's favor, shifting from +1.5 (-135) to +1.5 (-140), suggests that betting markets are gaining confidence in the Rays keeping this game close. Given these trends and the Rays' recent success in this specific scenario, taking the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 offers good value.

Top Player Prop Picks

Max Fried (NYY) Over Strikeouts

Max Fried has been the ace of the New York Yankees' pitching staff this season, boasting an impressive 11-4 record and a 2.69 ERA. As a top-tier pitcher, Fried consistently goes deep into games and has a history of racking up strikeouts. Facing a division rival like the Tampa Bay Rays, Fried will be motivated to deliver a strong performance, which typically translates to a high strikeout count. While specific strikeout lines are not available, betting on Fried to exceed his projected strikeout total is a strong play given his caliber and role as the Yankees' primary starter.

New York Yankees Total Runs Over

The New York Yankees offense is one of the most potent in the league, and playing at home in Yankee Stadium, they are well-positioned to put up a significant number of runs. While Joe Boyle has a low ERA (1.42) in his limited appearances for the Rays, he is still a relatively new face on the mound. The Yankees' lineup is known for its power and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Given their home-field advantage and offensive firepower, the Yankees are likely to score above their projected team total.

Joe Boyle (TB) Under Earned Runs

Joe Boyle, despite his limited major league experience, has shown impressive form with a 1-0 record and a 1.42 ERA. While facing a strong Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium is a challenge, Boyle's early season success suggests he has the stuff to limit damage. The Rays' strategy might involve a quick hook if Boyle gets into trouble, relying on their bullpen to keep the game close. Betting on Boyle to stay under his earned run total relies on his ability to navigate the Yankees' lineup for a few innings and the Rays' bullpen stepping up to maintain his low ERA.

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