If only I put as much time into college algebra as I have handicapping how long Chris Stapleton’s national anthem will run (O/U 127 seconds) and which song Rihanna will sing first (Don’t Stop the Music), perhaps my grade point average wouldn’t have suffered as much. The bye week between the NFL conference championships and Super Bowl 57 are the ultimate cram-for-the-final-exam experience for casual, novice and veteran bettor alike. So much time to pour over data points, historical concerts and dig into internet archives to hopefully unearth Stapleton singing the Star Spangled Banner before a random hockey game in November. Alas, I did not succeed. According to the American Gaming Association, roughly $16-billion will be wagered on Super Bowl in various ways including point spreads, moneylines, office pool squares and, my personal favorite, game and player prop bets.
People actually wager real money on back-up quarterbacks Chad Henne and Gardner Minshew to win Super Bowl 57 Most Valuable Player and if Rihanna will expose a butt cheek on stage (yes is a -160 favorite). What a time to be alive.
As you all continue to flip a quarter 1,001 times to help handicap your opening coin toss wager, here’s a quick rundown of the most popular player props on the board and how often the player hit the OVER this season.
Super Bowl Player Prop Odds
Quarterback Prop Trends
We all know what Mahomes can do with his arm, but against the NFL's top-ranked pass defense (171.0 PYAPG) and one that held Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers in check during the regular season, O294.5 seems like a high hurdle to clear.
|QB||O/U Pass Yards||Player Hit OVER This Season|
|Patrick Mahomes||O/U 294.5 (-115 / -115)||11 times in 19 games|
|Jalen Hurts||O/U 241.5 (+105 / -135)||7 times in 17 games|
Running Back Prop Trends
It's worth noting that the Chiefs activated running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire off injured reserve. So, he will be active along with Jerick McKinnon. Philly ranks in the middle of the pack against the rush as its allowed 119 rush yards per game this season. Pacheco finished with 10 carries for just 26 yards against the Bengals.
Sanders is averaging nearly 5.0 yards per carry this season. The Chiefs have allowed 5.1 yards per rush over their past three games.
|RB||O/U Rush Yards||Player Hit OVER This Season|
|Isiah Pacheco||O/U 48.5 (-120 / -110)||11 times|
|Miles Sanders||O/U 59.5 (-125 / -105)||11 times|
Wide Receiver Trend
A.J. Brown and teammate Devonta Smith are projected to be the top two wide receivers in this game with Travis Kelce pacing the passing game for K.C.
Brown averaged 119 receiving yards per game the last four games of the regular season. He's averaging 25 receiving yards per game in the playoffs.
The loss of Tyreek Hill's talents is evident when Smith-Schuster's 37.5 O/U is the projected high-water mark. With Kadarius Toney probable and Marquez Valdes-Scantling lurking, it's best to avoid any Chiefs wide receiver prop bets.
|WR||O/U Rec. Yards||Player Hit OVER This Season|
|A.J. Brown||O/U 71.5 (-120 / -110)||9 times|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||O/U 37.5 (-115 / -115)||9 times|
Tight End Trend
Goedert was placed on temporary injured reserve during the regular season with a shoulder injury, but returned on Christmas Eve. He's caught 10 of the 11 passes thrown to him in the postseason and is averaging 40.5 rec. yards per contest.
We all know what Kelce means to the Chiefs offensive gameplan. The Eagles allowed roughly five receptions for 47 yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season.
|TE||O/U Rec. Yards||Player Hit OVER This Season|
|Travis Kelce||O/U 79.5 (-115 / -115)||10 times|
|Dallas Goedert||O/U 48.5 (-125 / -115)||8 times|
Two of the league's top pass rushing units will be on display Sunday in Arizona. There's a ton of juice on Reddick's OVER to hit, but all he has to do is help take a hobbled Patrick Mahomes to the ground once and the bet cashes. The Bengals sacked Mahomes three times during the AFC Championship.
|Pass Rusher||O/U Sacks||Player Hit OVER This Season|
|Frank Clark||O/U 0.75 (+125 / -155)||6 times|
|Hasson Reddick||O/U 0.25 (-175 / +140)||14 times|
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook