In 10 seasons at the helm, Oakland Raiders Hall of Fame head coach John Madden boasted a 44-11-5 record against the AFL-NFL West comprised of the San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Of those 44 divisional wins, 14 came against K.C. More than 40 years later, the video game that bears Madden's brand isn't quite done embarrassing the Chiefs. The official EA Sports Madden NFL 23 simulation of Super Bowl 57 predicts the Eagles to blowout Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, 31-17.

Line Movement

The Chiefs actually opened as 1.5-point Super Bowl 57 favorites, but the consensus line shifted as high as Eagles -2.5 before settling in at Philadelphia -1.5 for the better part of the past two weeks at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Kansas City moneyline odds are around EVEN / +105. The point total has remained around O/U 50.5 since the Super Bowl 57 matchup was known. The UNDER has cashed in five of the Eagles past six and four of the Chiefs past five games. 

It's hard to believe this is just the 10th meeting between the Chiefs and Eagles in history. Back in 1972, in the first matchup, Kansas City - led by Len Dawson - were 17-point home favorites. The Eagles jumped out to a 21-0 lead and hung on to win 21-20. All-time, the Chiefs are 5-4 straight up, 4-5 against the spread and the OVER has cashed in six of the last eight games (no O/U data on 1972 contest).

Andy Reid was 3-0 against the Chiefs as head coach of the Eagles and is 3-0 against the Eagles as head coach of the Chiefs.

Chiefs News and Notes

• Proverbial Andy Reid-after-a-BYE data points
  • 30-6 overall
  • 8-3 in the playoffs
  • 22-14 against the spread overall
  • 7-4 against the spread in the playoffs
  • Reid + Mahomes are 3-3 ATS in the playoffs
• Patrick Mahomes says his ankle is definitely in a better place than it was seven days ago. Speaking to reporters four days before the Super Bowl, he said,

“You won’t know exactly how it is until you get to game day,” Mahomes said. “I mean, I definitely move around better than I was moving last week or two weeks ago. So it’s just trying to continue to get the treatment and the rehab and get it as close to 100% and then rely on some adrenaline to let me do a little bit extra when I’m on the field.”

• Those who watched the Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship game may remember Mahomes tweaked his high ankle sprain when rolling left and planting his weight on that right side.
• Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was activated from injured reserve. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman was placed on IR.
• The Chiefs boast the top scoring offense in the NFL at 28.7 points per game.
  • The Eagles boast the top passing defense in the NFL.
  • According to NFL.com, top scoring offenses are 0-4 when facing top passing defenses in the Super Bowl.
• Defensive back L'Jarius Sneed cleared concussion protocol and will play in Super Bowl 57.
  • The Chiefs secondary is very young, inexperienced.
  • Kansas City allowed a league-high 33 passing touchdowns, four more than any other squad in the NFL.
  • Sneed provides some semblance of veteran leadership against the 1-2 punch of Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown.

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

On paper, the two offenses are in lock step with the exception that Kansas City prefers the air and Philly the ground game. However, as you can see, defensively is where the Chiefs could run into some trouble especially with Mahomes not at 100% and no Tyreek Hill-type deep threat to open the field up for Travis Kelce. The offensive duo can only bail out defensive liabilities for so long.

It's worth noting that the Chiefs red zone defense has improved over its past three games against the Jaguars, Bengals and Raiders: 44.4% opponent RZ conversion rate.

Eagles News and Notes

• Jalen Hurts (+1500) and Patrick Mahomes (-1600) are finalists for the league Most Valuable Player award.
  • Since 2000, NFL MVP's are 0-9 in the Super Bowl.
• Check out how Pro Football Focus ranks each of the Eagles on the field units:

• The fact that Kansas City activated Edwards-Helaire ahead of Super Bowl 57 combined with the solid production the offense has received from Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon has me wondering if Andy Reid is cooking up a new-look scheme to work around Mahomes' limitations due to the high ankle sprain. Kelce will get his, but perhaps a healthy dose of the run will take some of the pass rush pressure off Mahomes and keep things interesting. Screen passes to McKinnon have worked in the past, right?
• On the injury front, Philadelphia is relatively healthy believe it or not.
  • We know Jalen Hurts' shoulder looked fine in the win over the Giants.
  • Offensive lineman Lane Johnson is playing through a groin injury that will require surgery this offseason.
• According to Pickwatch data, 54% like the Eagles to cover the spread, while 70% are on the UNDER 50.5 point total.

Betting Pick: Eagles -1.5

The Eagles pass rush is too much for the Chiefs offensive line and Mahomes hobbled. Jalen Hurts takes advantage of an inexperienced Kansas City secondary and beats them on some deep balls, which set-up some easy run-pass options inside the red zone. Eagles win and cover 28-24.