Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks @ Houston Cougars Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/28/2025 8:00 PM EDT

We have your Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks @ Houston Cougars prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks hit the road to face the Houston Cougars.

Game Info

Date: 8/28/2025
Time: 8:00 PM EDT
Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston
TV: -

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks @ Houston Cougars Preview

The Houston Cougars are set to open their 2025 season at home against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. This marks Houston's third season as a Big 12 member and their second under head coach Willie Fritz, following two consecutive 4-8 campaigns. The Cougars are looking to make this matchup the first step towards bowl contention, a goal they haven't reached since 2022.

Houston has seen significant changes, particularly on offense. They've brought in junior quarterback Conner Weigman, a transfer from Texas A&M who passed for 2,694 yards and 19 touchdowns there. The running back corps has been bolstered by Dean Connors, and the wide receiver group adds Amare Thomas and Harvey Broussard III. The offensive line has also undergone a complete overhaul under coach Eman Naghavi, and the team will feature a new offensive coordinator in Slade Nagle, who previously worked with Fritz at Tulane.

On the defensive side, Houston lost key players from their front four, linebacker corps, and secondary. However, they've actively used the transfer portal to bring in new talent, including defensive end Eddie Walls, defensive tackle Khalil Laufau, linebackers Jesus Machado, Carmycah Glass, and Sione Fotu, and defensive backs Marc Stampley, Will James, Blake Thompson, and Jordan Allen. Despite the changes, the Cougars' pass defense allowed 188.8 yards in 2024, which was more than their offense's 152.7 passing yards, indicating a need for defensive adjustments. Austin Armstrong takes over as defensive coordinator, aiming to build on his previous success at Florida.

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, under coach Colby Carthel, finished last season with a 7-5 overall record and 4-3 in Southland Conference play. They averaged 35.6 points per game, led by returning quarterback Sam Vidlak. Key offensive targets include wide receivers Kylon Harris, Jordan Neighbors, Blaine Green, and Isaiah Davis, with Jaylen Jenkins leading the rushing attack. Defensively, SFA was stout, allowing just 17.8 points per game and returning seven of their top 13 tacklers, including lineman Edwards Bobino III and cornerback Charles Demmings. Carthel has established a winning culture, leading SFA to an FCS playoff appearance in 2021 and a conference title in 2022.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

This upcoming game marks the fourth all-time meeting between the Houston Cougars and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. The last time these two teams faced off was on November 6, 1948, when both were members of the Lone Star Conference. In that contest, the Lumberjacks defeated the Cougars 21-13 at Public School Stadium in Houston, securing their second head-to-head victory in three seasons and maintaining a 2-1 all-time series lead over Houston.

Over seven and a half decades later, the landscape of college football has significantly evolved. Despite SFA's historic series lead, the current matchup sees Houston with a staggering 87.2 percent win probability according to ESPN's matchup predictor, reflecting the significant difference in program stature between an FBS Big 12 team and an FCS Southland Conference team.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks to cover the spread

While the Houston Cougars are expected to win this game outright, the analysis suggests that the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are well-equipped to cover the spread. Houston is undergoing significant changes with a new quarterback, several new skill position players, and a largely overhauled offensive line and defensive coaching staff. While these changes could lead to future success, early-season cohesion can be a challenge.

Stephen F. Austin, on the other hand, returns a strong core, including their starting quarterback Sam Vidlak, and boasts a defense that allowed only 17.8 points per game last season. Their recent success under Coach Colby Carthel, including an FCS playoff appearance and a conference title, indicates a program with a competitive mindset. The Lumberjacks are expected to be strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage at the FCS level and should be able to score enough points to keep the game within the double-digit spread. The final score prediction of Houston winning 38-23 suggests SFA will cover.