St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/18/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins prop betting and game preview needs covered as the St. Louis Cardinals hit the road to face the Miami Marlins.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Cardinals +125 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: Marlins -1.5 (+165, FanDuel)
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-110, Caesars)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-18
Time: 6:40 PM ET
Location: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
TV: -

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals (61-64) head to Miami to open a series against the Miami Marlins (59-65). The Cardinals are coming off a tough weekend, having lost five in a row, including a sweep by the New York Yankees. Their offense has averaged 4.4 runs per game this season, but only 3.7 in their last 10 outings. On the mound for St. Louis will be left-hander Matthew Liberatore (6-10, 4.08 ERA). Liberatore's last start saw him give up 3 earned runs over 4 innings against Colorado, but the Cardinals have a strong 4-1 record in his last five road starts and are 6-2 when he starts as a moneyline underdog.

The Miami Marlins return home after a challenging 3-8 road trip. They recently secured a 5-3 win against the Boston Red Sox. Miami's offense averages 4.32 runs per game this season, with a slightly higher 4.7 runs per game in their last 10. Right-hander Eury Pérez (5-3, 3.58 ERA) is slated to start for the Marlins. Pérez struck out eight batters in his last outing, a 13-4 win over Cleveland. However, he has shown some vulnerability recently, allowing nine runs and five home runs in his last two starts. The Marlins have also struggled against left-handed starters, holding a 3-6 record in their last nine games against southpaws.

loanDepot park, the Marlins' home stadium, has an overall Park Factor of 101, indicating it's slightly batter-friendly. However, its HR factor is 90, suggesting it plays as a pitcher-friendly park for home runs.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Recent head-to-head matchups between the Cardinals and Marlins have seen a mixed bag of results, often with lower scoring outcomes. In their last three regular season encounters in July 2025, the Marlins secured two low-scoring victories (2-0 and 5-0), while the Cardinals managed a decisive 7-1 win. Looking at a broader set of recent games, including spring training, there have been 8 or fewer runs scored in three of their last head-to-head contests. The Cardinals have lost five of their last six games against the Marlins, with a 1-0 record on the road against them in that span. The over/under trend in these recent matchups has been fairly balanced, with a 5-4-1 record for both teams.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+125)

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Despite the Cardinals' recent five-game losing streak, there's compelling value in backing them as road underdogs in this matchup. Matthew Liberatore has performed well when the Cardinals are underdogs, boasting a 6-2 record in such starts this season. Furthermore, St. Louis has a strong 4-1 record in Liberatore's last five road outings. The Marlins, on the other hand, have shown vulnerability against left-handed pitching, holding a 3-6 record in their last nine games against southpaws. While Eury Pérez has a good overall ERA, his recent starts have seen him give up a concerning number of runs and home runs. The combination of Liberatore's road and underdog success, coupled with Miami's struggles against lefties and Pérez's recent form, makes the Cardinals moneyline an attractive underdog play.

Top Player Prop Picks

Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 Hits (-180)

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Lars Nootbaar faces a tough matchup against Eury Pérez, who has dominated him in their limited career plate appearances. Pérez has struck out Nootbaar in all three of their matchups, demonstrating a clear advantage. Furthermore, Pérez boasts a strong 46.7% strikeout rate against the current Cardinals roster. While Nootbaar's season batting average is .233, this specific pitcher-batter history strongly favors the under on his hit prop.

Alec Burleson Over 0.5 Hits (-215)

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Alec Burleson's prop line for over 0.5 hits is set at -215. Despite a small sample size of two plate appearances against Eury Pérez, Burleson has recorded one hit in those matchups. More importantly, Burleson maintains a solid season batting average of .283. Given the low hit line and his consistent ability to make contact, the over is a favorable pick for Burleson to get at least one hit in this game.

Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

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Agustin Ramirez's total bases prop is set at 1.5 with odds of -105. Ramirez has demonstrated power this season with a .439 slugging percentage and a 4.2% home run rate. While there's no direct pitcher-batter data for Ramirez against Matthew Liberatore, Liberatore has a 4.08 ERA, indicating he can be hit. Even with loanDepot park being slightly pitcher-friendly for home runs (HR factor 90), Ramirez has the capability to hit a double or multiple singles to clear this line, making the over a valuable play.

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