St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/29/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds prop betting and game preview needs covered as the St. Louis Cardinals hit the road to face the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Cincinnati Reds -130 on BetRivers | St. Louis Cardinals +115 on Caesars
Best Spread Odds: Cincinnati Reds -1.0 (+115) on BetRivers | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-190) on Caesars
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-125) on ESPN BET | Under 9.0 (-120) on BetMGM

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-29
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
TV: -

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds (68-66) are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals (66-69) in a crucial NL Central clash at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark and are actively pursuing a spot in the NL Wild Card race, making this series highly significant for their playoff aspirations. The Reds enter this contest four games out of the final Wild Card spot, while the Cardinals are 6.5 games back, highlighting the urgency for both clubs.

Cincinnati is looking for a reset after a challenging road trip that saw them drop six of their final seven games, including a sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their offense has struggled, and the bullpen has been heavily utilized, leading to a recent surge in strikeouts, including a season-high 19 punchouts in one game against the Dodgers. Right-hander Zack Littell (9-8, 3.62 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Reds. Littell has been a mid-rotation stabilizer for Cincinnati, and his team has won 55.6% of his starts when favored on the moneyline.

The St. Louis Cardinals have also faced their share of frustrations this season, marked by inconsistency. They managed to salvage a split in their recent four-game home series against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4-1 victory, snapping a mini-slide. Injuries to key players like Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan have forced younger players into significant roles. Left-hander Matthew Liberatore (6-11, 4.27 ERA) will take the mound for St. Louis. Liberatore has had an erratic season, completing five innings just once in his last seven starts and carrying an 0-5 record with a 6.21 ERA over that span.

Both offenses have been inconsistent, ranking in the bottom half of the National League in scoring and hitting with runners in scoring position. This suggests that timely hitting will be paramount. The bullpens for both teams have also shown vulnerabilities, with the Reds' relief corps being overworked and the Cardinals' struggling with consistency due to injuries. This game could very well come down to which bullpen holds up under pressure.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The St. Louis Cardinals currently hold a slight edge in the season series against the Cincinnati Reds, leading 4-3. In their most recent three matchups this season, the Cardinals have a 2-1 record against the Reds. Looking back at previous series this year, the Cardinals secured a series win at Great American Ball Park in April and also took the series 2-1 at Busch Stadium in June.

One notable head-to-head result saw the Reds defeat the Cardinals 9-1 in a game where Matthew Liberatore pitched only three innings. Historically, eight of the Reds' last nine games as favorites against the Cardinals have gone UNDER the total runs line. Overall, the Cincinnati Reds have claimed 106 victories against the Cardinals (61 at home), while the St. Louis Cardinals have 113 wins (61 on the road).

From a pitching perspective, Reds starter Zack Littell has a career record of 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in nine appearances (one start) against St. Louis. Conversely, Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore holds a career record of 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA in eight appearances against Cincinnati, despite his recent struggles.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline

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The Cincinnati Reds are the favored team in this matchup, and for good reason. Playing at Great American Ball Park, where they tend to perform better, gives them a significant home-field advantage. While both teams have shown inconsistency, the Reds have an edge in the starting pitching matchup with Zack Littell on the mound, who boasts a better ERA (3.62) compared to Matthew Liberatore's (4.27). Furthermore, sharp betting insights indicate a 55.43% win probability for the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline, aligning with expert predictions that favor the Reds to secure an important home victory. You can back the Reds at -130 on BetRivers.

Top Player Prop Picks

Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds) Home Runs Over 0.5

Elly De La Cruz, the dynamic Reds shortstop, is a strong candidate to hit a home run in this game. While his career numbers against Matthew Liberatore are modest (1-for-5 with a double), the Great American Ball Park is known for being a hitter-friendly venue, particularly for home runs, with a park factor of 122 for dingers. De La Cruz has shown power this season with a 3.3% home run rate. Given Liberatore's recent struggles, completing five innings only once in his last seven starts and carrying a 6.21 ERA over that span, De La Cruz could capitalize on any mistakes. This pick aligns with the offensive potential at this park and Liberatore's recent form.

Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) Strikeouts Under 5.5

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Matthew Liberatore has been struggling to find his rhythm on the mound, making the Under on his strikeout prop an appealing pick. In his last seven starts, Liberatore has an 0-5 record with a 6.21 ERA and has only completed five innings once. His career strikeout rate against the current Cincinnati Reds roster is a low 10%. Given his recent inability to go deep into games and his historical strikeout numbers against this specific lineup, it's unlikely he will reach six strikeouts. This pick is supported by his recent performance trends and his career numbers against the Reds' hitters.

Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals) Total Bases Under 1.5

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Alec Burleson faces a tough matchup against Reds right-hander Zack Littell. While Burleson has a hit in his limited career plate appearances against Littell (1-for-3), his expected batting average (xBA) of 0.068 and expected slugging (xSLG) of 0.081 against Littell suggest that his previous hit might have been fortunate. These advanced metrics indicate that he is unlikely to make solid contact consistently. Given Littell's overall more stable performance this season (3.62 ERA), it's reasonable to expect Burleson to struggle to accumulate more than one total base in this contest.