Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/14/2025 1:05 PM EDT

We have your Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Seattle Mariners hit the road to face the Baltimore Orioles.

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Seattle Mariners -122 [DraftKings] / Baltimore Orioles +115 [ESPN BET]
Best Spread Odds: Seattle Mariners -1.0 (+102) [BetRivers] / Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-142) [Fanduel]
Best Total Odds: Over 9.5 (-105) [Fanduel] / Under 9.5 (-105) [BetMGM]

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-14
Time: 1:05 PM EDT
Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
TV: ROOT Sports NW

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Seattle Mariners (67-54) and Baltimore Orioles (54-66) are set to conclude their three-game series today at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Mariners, who recently had an impressive eight-game winning streak snapped, are looking to bounce back after a tough 4-3 loss to the Orioles on Wednesday. They hold a 30-29 road record this season. The Orioles, meanwhile, broke a three-game losing streak with their win yesterday and are 29-30 at home.

On the mound for the Mariners will be right-hander Logan Evans (6-4, 4.36 ERA). Evans has logged 74.1 innings this season, allowing 77 hits and 36 earned runs. While he has won three of his last four decisions, his expected ERA of 5.39 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. For the Orioles, right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano (9-5, 4.24 ERA) gets the start. Sugano has pitched 121 innings across 22 games, giving up 127 hits and 57 earned runs. He is coming off a strong performance where he pitched seven innings, allowing just one earned run against the Athletics.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

This game marks the rubber match of a three-game series between the Mariners and Orioles. The series is currently tied 1-1, with Seattle taking the first game 1-0 on Tuesday, and Baltimore evening it up with a 4-3 victory on Wednesday. The Orioles' win on Wednesday was a dramatic walk-off, their first of the season, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.

Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs

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The total for this game is set at 9.5 runs, and the Under looks like a strong play. A significant factor supporting this pick is the projected wind conditions at Camden Yards, which are expected to blow in towards home plate. This phenomenon, known as "Wind Blowing In," has historically suppressed scoring at ballparks sensitive to wind, including Oriole Park. Betting the Under in such conditions has shown consistent profitability. While both starting pitchers, Logan Evans and Tomoyuki Sugano, have ERAs in the low 4s, suggesting potential for runs, the wind factor could significantly limit offensive output. Furthermore, Sugano has had success against the Mariners earlier this season, throwing seven innings of one-run baseball against them. The Mariners' offense has also struggled since the All-Star Break, batting just .213 and ranking second-last in OPS at .663 during that period. This combination of wind, recent offensive struggles for Seattle, and Sugano's past performance against them makes the Under 9.5 a compelling pick.

Top Player Prop Picks

J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Hits

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Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford has been consistently getting on base, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop an attractive option. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10 games. Over the entire season, Crawford has hit the over on this line in 65.81% of his games. More impressively, in his limited exposure against Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano, Crawford has a .667 batting average (2 hits in 3 plate appearances). Given his strong recent form and favorable individual matchup, Crawford is well-positioned to record at least one hit today. You can find the best odds for J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Hits at -180 on [Fanduel].

Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Mariners star Julio Rodríguez has demonstrated a strong ability to accumulate bases recently. He has hit the over on 1.5 total bases in 60% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10 games, with a mean of 3.0 and 2.9 total bases respectively. His season mean for total bases is 1.87, which is above the current line of 1.5. While his head-to-head numbers against Sugano are not outstanding (1 hit in 3 PAs), his overall recent performance and season-long average suggest he is likely to exceed this line. Rodríguez's ability to hit for extra bases makes him a strong candidate for this prop. The best odds for Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 Total Bases are -120 on [BetRivers].

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

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Orioles starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has shown a tendency to rack up strikeouts, particularly in recent outings. He has hit the over on 3.5 strikeouts in 80% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10 games, with mean strikeout totals of 4.6 and 4.0 respectively. His season mean for strikeouts is 3.64, just above the line. Although his only prior appearance against the Mariners this season saw him record 5 strikeouts (a small sample size), his recent form indicates he's capable of hitting this mark. The Mariners' lineup also struck out 8 times in yesterday's game against Orioles pitching. The best odds for Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts are -158 on [Fanduel].

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