Each Week, Head of Content & Marketing Michael Schottey makes his picks for the upcoming slate of NFL action. For more on the best picks of the week, check out Pickwatch Pro for only $30 per year and get access to in-depth insights on proven winners. 

Picks are straight up. Odds are provided for informational purposes and courtesy of our friends at BetMGM. 

NEW for the Championship Round and Super Bowl, I’ll be providing score predictions as well. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

A big part of me wonders if this line has a lot to do with our predilection toward quarterback play and offensive football. Like, I get it…the Chiefs just had an amazing win in the Divisional Round against a top-notch opponent, but so did the Bengals. Yes, absolutely, Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and that offense showed they cannot be stopped, but didn’t they just also give up 36 points? 

The Bengals should not be counted out of this game. Although the Chiefs are coming in with the most potent offense in the NFL—scoring on 48.2 percent of all offensive drives—the Bengals have one of the stingiest defenses. They are seventh defensively, allowing scores on only 33.9 percent of opponents offensive drives. The Bengals are also able to apply consistent pressure, even though they don’t blitz very frequently…only 20.5 percent of the time. 

The other big factor when it comes to this game may be the presence (or lack thereof) of safety Tyrann Mathieu. Both teams are relatively healthy heading into this game, but the absence of Honey Badger might spell trouble against the Bengals vertically-inclined offense. 

Still, I can go through all the ways I believe the Bengals can keep this close, but I don’t think they win this game. Even…even…this devolves into another shootout, don’t you love Mahomes’ chances to win that shootout? The Bengals have had some “Team of Destiny” vibes over the past month or so, but the Chiefs are showing they’re the best team in football. Pick: Chiefs 31 Bengals 27

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

I said it last week, and I’ll say it again this week… I want the 49ers to win here. I don’t root for them normally, but I have enjoyed watching them play over the course of the last handful of seasons. This is a well-coached team from top to bottom and although there are some foibles, the fact that they continue to win with only average quarterbacking (and often in spite of that average quarterbacking). 

I’m going to take it one step further this week, though. Last week, I chickened out and didn’t actually pick the 49ers to beat the Packers. I saw the upset happening, I just didn’t pull the trigger. This week, against a team whose proverbial lunchmoney they’ve stolen for years? I can’t help but take the team I actually want to see win. 

This isn’t a knock against the Rams, I enjoy watching them too. It’s notable that many of their “hired gun” veterans are showing up so big in playoff moments. This is not a mercenary “super team.” It’s a collection of guys who all played big in big moments on previous teams and then whose teams let them down. I don’t love the word “deserve” in sports contexts, because you only deserve what you earn in the field of play, but it’s hard not to think that QB Matthew Stafford, defensive end Von Miller, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and even homegrown talent like defensive end Aaron Donald deserve a Super Bowl. 

The 49ers just have their number, and while the old adage of “it’s hard to beat the same team twice” (or, three times in this case) is certainly true, Stafford is just 1-5 against the 49ers in his career. McVay has lost five straight. The 49ers offense historically overperforms against the Rams, while the Rams historically underperform against the 49ers. 

The matchup I’m looking forward to the most is Stafford against 49ers coordinator DeMeco Ryans. Both men are having fantastic playoffs, with Stafford playing mistake-free ball and Ryans polishing an already-impressive resume. His use of disguised zone coverage is likely to slow Stafford down and create more turnovers than Stafford has given up throughout this playoff run. That is where the 49ers win this game. Pick: 49ers 27 Rams 18