I'll get to the headline in a minute, but before I do, if you haven't seen one of my Rebel Points stories before, click here for a little context.

With that out of the way, there's no point in hiding what the headline says. Pickwatch Users, while they score very highly overall as a group, don't score as well as their overall score suggests when it comes to Rebel Points. Intuitively, this makes some sense -- since the Pickwatch Users entry is the consensus pick of all users, there should be very few times that it picks against the expert consensus. So while from a pure win % standpoint, the users of this site appear to be pretty smart (67.9% is nothing to hang your heads on, guys!) they finish 11 places behind the nearest expert with the same winning percentage.

In other words, if the Pickwatch Users are disagreeing with the experts, you should probably just stick with the experts' opinion.

To follow last week's tradition of recognizing experts who successfully went out on a limb, we've actually got a few more fun games to play with this week. There were 4 games this week in which less than 16% of experts correctly picked the winning team:

Cleveland at Jacksonville (15.50%)

*Kansas City *(10.08%) at San Diego

Miami (7.75%) at Chicago

Seattle at St. Louis (0.78%)

Obviously, with 4 chances, we had a number of experts get one of these upsets correct. In fact, 37 out of 129 experts (or, since I love percentages so much, 28.7%) got at least one of these big upset picks correct. Thankfully, rather than list out all 37 of them, only 7 (5.4%) of the experts got more than one of those picks right.

First, Chris Mortensen, Mike Garofolo, Neil Hornsby, and the infamous PFT Commenter each correctly picked Jacksonville and Kansas City to win their games. That's impressive, but it's not as impressive as Brent Sobieski and John Breech, who each picked both Kansas City and Miami to win their games.

While those 6 deserve credit, there's one guy who deserves a paragraph of his own. Not only did he correctly pick Miami's upset of Chicago, but he also was the only expert on Pickwatch to select St. Louis defeating Seattle last week. So a great bit of recognition goes out to Ty Schalter this week. Congratulations Ty, you are the 0.78%!

There might be another tweak to the formula next week, but until then, here are the updated standings:

Rank

Name

Sum of Points

Win %

Rebel Points

1

Gordon McGuinness

74

69.81%

46.05

2

Chris Simms

73

68.87%

45.39

3

Nate Silver

74

69.81%

45.29

4

Brendon Ayanbadejo

74

69.81%

45.09

5

Jamey Eisenberg

74

69.81%

44.09

6

Tom Pelissero

72

67.92%

43.79

7

Tom Jackson

72

67.92%

43.28

8

Pete Prisco

71

66.98%

43.26

9

Jimmy Traina

71

66.98%

43.15

10

K.C. Joyner

72

67.92%

43.12

11

Marc Sessler

72

67.92%

43.11

12

Lorenzo Reyes

72

67.92%

43.11

13

Dave Dameshek

70

66.04%

42.66

14

Steve Palazzolo

71

66.98%

42.60

15

Accuscore

71

66.98%

42.56

16

Dan Hanzus

69

65.09%

42.15

17

Numberfire

70

66.04%

42.09

18

Adam Ronis

71

66.98%

42.01

19

Zach Kruse

71

66.98%

42.00

20

Pickwatch Users

72

67.92%

41.97

21

Vinnie Iyer

70

66.04%

41.86

22

Michael Fabiano

71

66.98%

41.85

23

Gary Mihoces

70

66.04%

41.82

24

Cris Carter

71

66.98%

41.78

25

Vegas Line

71

67.62%

41.75

26

TD Daniel

68

64.15%

41.72

27

Peter Schrager

68

64.15%

41.65

28

Khaled Elsayed

69

65.09%

41.64

29

Eric Allen

70

66.67%

41.59

30

Yahoo Users

71

66.98%

41.46

31

Ron Jaworski

70

66.04%

41.41

32

Brad Gagnon

69

65.09%

41.37

33

ESPN Fans

71

66.98%

41.37

34

Gregg Rosenthal

69

65.09%

41.31

35

Teamrankings

70

66.04%

41.25

36

Dr. Roto

70

66.67%

41.22

37

Expert Consensus

71

66.98%

41.01

38

Michael David Smith

70

66.04%

40.99

39

John Halpin

67

63.21%

40.97

40

Dave Richard

68

64.15%

40.93

41

Bart Scott

69

65.09%

40.82

42

Alex Marvez

68

64.15%

40.68

43

Microsoft Cortana

69

65.09%

40.65

44

Marcas Grant

69

65.71%

40.64

45

Michael Irvin

69

65.09%

40.58

46

Whatifsports

69

65.09%

40.52

47

Prediction Machine

69

65.09%

40.51

48

Rich Gannon

68

64.76%

40.43

49

Don Banks

69

65.09%

40.41

50

Seth Wickersham

67

63.21%

40.30

51

Chris Trapasso

66

63.46%

40.29

52

Kevin Patra

68

64.15%

40.29

53

Nate Davis

69

65.09%

40.20

54

Mike Freeman

65

61.32%

40.17

55

Bill Lekas

68

64.76%

40.12

56

Jeff Erickson

66

62.26%

40.03

57

Mike Tanier

66

62.86%

39.94

58

Adam Schein

67

63.21%

39.87

59

NFL FAN PICKS

69

65.09%

39.83

60

Jason La Canfora

67

63.21%

39.80

61

Kurt Warner

66

62.26%

39.77

62

Sam Monson

66

62.26%

39.67

63

Matt Miller

68

64.15%

39.53

64

Neil Hornsby

66

62.26%

39.48

65

Brent Sobleski

66

62.26%

39.45

66

Bill Cowher

66

62.26%

39.26

67

Matt Bowen

66

62.26%

39.11

68

David Fucillo

66

62.26%

38.99

69

Jarrett Bell

66

62.26%

38.95

70

FOX.com Editors

65

61.32%

38.92

71

Mike Garafolo

63

59.43%

38.89

72

Jim Corbett

67

63.21%

38.79

73

Matt Ufford

65

61.32%

38.79

74

Steve Mariucci

67

63.21%

38.67

75

PFT Commenter

58

58.00%

38.66

76

Jim Miller

65

62.50%

38.66

77

Mike Ditka

64

60.38%

38.64

78

Michael Schottey

66

62.26%

38.62

79

Gary Davenport

65

61.32%

38.56

80

John Breech

65

61.32%

38.54

81

Warren Sapp

65

61.32%

38.49

82

Shaun O'Hara

66

62.26%

38.47

83

Joel Thorman

64

60.38%

38.46

84

Mike Florio

65

61.32%

38.24

85

Elliot Harrison

65

61.32%

38.20

86

Boomer Esiason

66

62.26%

38.14

87

Rich Eisen

65

61.32%

38.12

88

Melissa Stark

65

61.32%

38.11

89

Adam Schefter

64

60.38%

38.04

90

Adam Rank

65

61.32%

37.93

91

Marshall Faulk

63

59.43%

37.87

92

Eric Adelson

63

59.43%

37.43

93

Chris Wesseling

64

60.38%

37.42

94

Tony Gonzalez

63

59.43%

37.39

95

Rick Drummond

64

60.38%

37.28

96

Ben Stockwell

63

59.43%

37.27

97

Henry Hodgson

64

60.38%

37.24

98

Mark Schlereth

65

61.32%

37.23

99

Will Brinson

63

59.43%

37.16

100

Braden Gall

64

60.38%

37.11

101

Nathan Jahnke

64

60.38%

37.05

102

Frank Schwab

63

59.43%

37.03

103

Sterling Sharpe

62

58.49%

37.01

104

Pickwatch

62

58.49%

36.88

105

Ryan Fowler

63

59.43%

36.81

106

Merill Hoge

63

59.43%

36.74

107

Lindsay H. Jones

64

60.38%

36.72

108

Adam Meyer

61

57.55%

36.22

109

Keyshawn Johnson

62

58.49%

36.16

110

Joel Beall

61

57.55%

36.05

111

Rivers McCown

59

55.66%

35.96

112

Chris Brockman

62

58.49%

35.94

113

Michael Robinson

61

67.78%

35.76

114

Chris Mortensen

60

56.60%

35.75

115

Mike Golic

62

58.49%

35.70

116

Ryan Van Bibber

61

57.55%

35.66

117

WalterFootball

60

56.60%

35.54

118

Josh Katzowitz

62

58.49%

35.22

119

Danny Kelly

60

56.60%

34.67

120

Andrea Hangst

60

56.60%

34.62

121

Stephen White

59

55.66%

34.38

122

Ty Schalter

58

54.72%

34.31

123

Chris Law

55

52.38%

33.37

124

Brandon Tierney

58

63.74%

33.24

125

Chris Hansen

57

53.77%

32.45

126

Ryan Wilson

57

53.77%

32.34

127

Erik Frenz

56

52.83%

32.27

128

Stephen A Smith

52

57.78%

30.64

129

Nick Kostos

31

50.82%

18.19