NFL Pickwatch - Rebel Points Week 6

If you missed the first post on Rebel Points, the newest weekly feature on Pickwatch, you can find it by clicking here.

Before I get to the updates to the formula and this week's standings, I want to take a quick look at last week's picks. The goal with Rebel Points is to reward the experts who pick against the consensus with the highest level of accuracy. If we ignore the travesty that was the tie between Cincinnati and Carolina, we really only had two opportunities for experts to correctly pick against an overwhelming majority of the rest of the experts:

Dallas (3.9% of experts) @ Seattle (96.1%)

Chicago (28.1% of experts) @ Atlanta (71.9%)

Looking at just these two picks, only two experts picked them both correctly: Melissa Stark and Sterling Sharpe. These two both only got 10 out of 14 picks correct for the week (again ignoring the tie), but as they were the only two to pick the two biggest upsets, I feel they deserve a little pat on the back.

I mentioned last week that there were some problems with the first edition of the Rebel Points formula. For continuity, I've included the top 10 places in the original Rebel Points standings, updated to include week 6 data. Once again, PFT Commenter is at the top of the list, but, once again, I think we can all agree that with his 57% overall winning percentage, he has no business being the leader in anything:

Rank

Name

Win %

Rebel Points

PFT Commenter

57.14%

16.82

Gordon McGuinness

68.89%

16.00

Chris Simms

68.89%

15.71

Nate Silver

71.11%

15.44

Brendon Ayanbadejo

70.00%

14.91

TD Daniel

66.67%

14.67

Jimmy Traina

66.67%

14.03

Tom Pelissero

67.78%

13.82

Dave Dameshek

66.67%

13.69

Dan Hanzus

65.56%

13.66

Moving on to the new version of the Rebel Points Formula, or RPF, if you will, I'm trying to eliminate some of the incentive for picking against the consensus with every pick. In the original formula, getting a pick right that 99% of the experts agreed on only earned 0.01 points, which feels a little too punitive. To illustrate just how wrong this formula is, if you had picked every single game against the consensus so far this year, you'd have 34.68 points, far and away the highest total of any expert. That doesn't sit very well with me.

I want Rebel Points to reward those who pick against the grain, but more importantly, I want it to reward those who responsibly pick against the grain. With that in mind, I've tweaked the formula so that the minimum you can earn for a correct pick is 0.5 points, and the maximum is 1. I still use the % of experts who picked against you as the primary factor in determining exactly how many points you earn. In equation form:

Rebel Points awarded per correct pick = 1/2 + (1 - (% of experts who picked correctly))/2

Again, the idea here is to reward the experts for both picking upsets, while doing so selectively. I'm still not sure we've come anywhere close to a perfect system, but it feels a little better than last week's formula. It should be no surprise that Nate Silver tops these rankings as well, as his accuracy still outpaces the field.

To highlight an expert this week who seems to be underperforming when he picks against the grain, look no further than 31st place where Cris Carter sits. Compared to the other experts with the same (or worse) winning percentage, Carter is giving up 1 to 1.5 Rebel Points. His overall winning percentage isn't bad, but let's use a little caution before trusting any upset picks he makes.

Rank

Row Labels

Win %

Rebel Points

Nate Silver

71.11%

39.72

Gordon McGuinness

68.89%

39.00

Brendon Ayanbadejo

70.00%

38.96

Chris Simms

68.89%

38.86

Jamey Eisenberg

70.00%

37.96

Tom Pelissero

67.78%

37.41

TD Daniel

66.67%

37.33

Jimmy Traina

66.67%

37.02

K.C. Joyner

67.78%

36.99

Marc Sessler

67.78%

36.98

Dave Dameshek

66.67%

36.85

Tom Jackson

67.78%

36.78

Pete Prisco

66.67%

36.77

Lorenzo Reyes

67.78%

36.60

Adam Ronis

67.78%

36.55

Zach Kruse

67.78%

36.53

Pickwatch Users

68.89%

36.49

Steve Palazzolo

66.67%

36.47

Accuscore

66.67%

36.43

Dan Hanzus

65.56%

36.33

Khaled Elsayed

66.67%

36.32

Vinnie Iyer

66.67%

36.27

Numberfire

65.56%

35.95

ESPN Fans

67.78%

35.89

Marcas Grant

67.42%

35.83

Peter Schrager

64.44%

35.78

Dr. Roto

67.42%

35.76

Gregg Rosenthal

65.56%

35.73

Michael Fabiano

66.67%

35.72

Gary Mihoces

65.56%

35.69

Cris Carter

66.67%

35.65

Vegas Line

67.42%

35.62

Adam Schein

65.56%

35.61

Dave Richard

64.44%

35.46

Yahoo Users

66.67%

35.33

Bill Lekas

65.56%

35.21

Teamrankings

65.56%

35.12

Michael Irvin

65.56%

35.11

Chris Trapasso

64.77%

35.10

Jeff Erickson

63.33%

35.09

Whatifsports

65.56%

35.05

John Halpin

63.33%

35.02

Ron Jaworski

65.56%

35.00

Brad Gagnon

64.44%

34.98

Don Banks

65.56%

34.95

Jason La Canfora

64.44%

34.90

Expert Consensus

66.67%

34.88

Michael David Smith

65.56%

34.86

Mike Freeman

62.22%

34.81

Bart Scott

64.44%

34.69

Eric Allen

65.17%

34.54

Rich Gannon

64.44%

34.53

Microsoft Cortana

64.44%

34.52

Seth Wickersham

63.33%

34.44

Prediction Machine

64.44%

34.38

Mike Tanier

62.92%

34.36

NFL FAN PICKS

65.56%

34.35

Sam Monson

62.22%

34.19

Alex Marvez

63.33%

34.17

Kevin Patra

63.33%

34.16

Matt Miller

64.44%

34.07

Nate Davis

64.44%

34.07

Kurt Warner

62.22%

33.91

FOX.com Editors

62.22%

33.89

Matt Ufford

62.22%

33.87

Jarrett Bell

63.33%

33.68

Gary Davenport

62.22%

33.65

Joel Thorman

61.11%

33.57

David Fucillo

62.22%

33.40

Jim Corbett

63.33%

33.34

Pickwatch

61.11%

33.19

Michael Schottey

62.22%

33.14

Matt Bowen

62.22%

33.11

Warren Sapp

61.11%

33.02

Shaun O'Hara

62.22%

32.91

Bill Cowher

61.11%

32.86

Joel Beall

61.11%

32.85

Mike Florio

61.11%

32.79

Tony Gonzalez

61.11%

32.77

Elliot Harrison

61.11%

32.74

Rich Eisen

61.11%

32.66

Boomer Esiason

62.22%

32.66

Melissa Stark

61.11%

32.64

Ryan Fowler

61.11%

32.55

Steve Mariucci

62.22%

32.54

Jim Miller

61.36%

32.53

Chris Wesseling

61.11%

32.51

Mike Ditka

58.89%

32.51

Adam Schefter

60.00%

32.46

PFT Commenter

57.14%

32.41

Will Brinson

60.00%

32.14

Mike Garafolo

57.78%

32.10

Frank Schwab

60.00%

32.09

Brent Sobleski

60.00%

32.09

Neil Hornsby

60.00%

32.02

Mike Golic

61.11%

31.98

Adam Rank

61.11%

31.97

Rivers McCown

57.78%

31.93

Mark Schlereth

61.11%

31.77

100

Henry Hodgson

60.00%

31.76

101

John Breech

60.00%

31.72

102

Nathan Jahnke

60.00%

31.59

103

Sterling Sharpe

57.78%

31.53

104

Marshall Faulk

57.78%

31.44

105

Eric Adelson

57.78%

31.30

106

Ryan Van Bibber

58.89%

31.26

107

Lindsay H. Jones

60.00%

31.25

108

Rick Drummond

58.89%

31.15

109

Braden Gall

58.89%

30.98

110

Adam Meyer

57.78%

30.92

111

Ben Stockwell

57.78%

30.74

112

Stephen A Smith

58.43%

30.64

113

Merill Hoge

57.78%

30.61

114

Chris Brockman

57.78%

30.48

115

Michael Robinson

68.92%

30.28

116

Chris Mortensen

56.67%

30.04

117

Keyshawn Johnson

56.67%

30.03

118

Josh Katzowitz

57.78%

29.75

119

Andrea Hangst

56.67%

29.69

120

Chris Law

53.93%

29.49

121

Stephen White

54.44%

28.66

122

Danny Kelly

54.44%

28.54

123

WalterFootball

53.33%

28.45

124

Brandon Tierney

64.00%

27.79

125

Chris Hansen

53.33%

27.52

126

Ty Schalter

52.22%

27.43

127

Ryan Wilson

52.22%

26.86

128

Erik Frenz

51.11%

26.79

129

Nick Kostos

50.82%

18.19