The Raiders scored 17 unanswered points in the second half to rally and beat the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13, 27-20. Derek Carr and company covered as 2.5-point home favorites to improve to 5-7 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.

Without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, the Rams fell short of an upset home win in its 27-23 loss to the Seahawks. The injury riddled Rams fell to 3-9 overall, but improved to 3-7-2 ATS by covering the 6.5 at SoFi Stadium.

Line Movement

The Rams opened as 5.5-point home dogs, but bookmakers at the best online sportsbooks we track have since bumped the line to Raiders -6. The Los Angeles moneyline odds are anywhere between +205 and +215. The over-under point total opened at 42 before a significant tick up to O/U 44.5. The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams last six and UNDER in four of the Raiders last six games.

Las Vegas has covered the spread in six of its past nine games, but are still a long shot at 150-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl 57.

Raiders News and Notes

• The Raiders 6-6 ATS record to-date breaks down like this:
  • L-L-L-W-W-W-L-L-L-W-W-W
  • During their three-game winning streak, Las Vegas has won by a margin of 6.3 points per contest.
• Running back Josh Jacobs was limited in practice Monday with calf and quad injuries.
  • Jacobs’ uptick in usage is significant and part of the reason the Raiders have won three straight:
    • He’s averaging 26 carries and 140 rush yards per game with four touchdowns over his past four games.
    • The Rams fourth-ranked rush defense allows less than 97 rush yards per game.
• The Raiders only reached the Chargers red zone once in their 27-20 win and failed to find the end zone. Las Vegas ranks 28^th in RZ efficiency and have regressed; converting just 33% of their trips inside an opponent’s 20-yard line during their 3-game winning streak. The deep ball and long Jacobs’ runs seem to be carrying much of the burden.
  • On the flip side, the Rams red zone defense ranks second in the NFL as opponents have converted only 43% of their trips into touchdowns.
• The Raiders offense also ranks in the bottom 10 in third down conversion rate and were just 3-of-10 on down and distance in their win over the Chargers.
• On defense, Chandler Jones enjoyed his breakout game for the Raiders with three sacks of Justin Herbert. As a unit, the defense sacked Herbert five times and hit him 14.
  • The Rams o-line allows the second-most sacks per game at 3.5 per contest. This matchup could play a huge factor in the Raiders covering on the road.
• Kicker Daniel Carlson hadn’t missed a field goal in over a year until recently and has now missed at least one field goal in three consecutive games.

Rams News and Notes

UPDATE: Yes, the Rams signed Baker Mayfield. No, the waiver wire claim did not move the point spread despite Adam Schefter’s report that he was sent a playbook via the metaverse and could play Thursday.

• In case you missed it, Matthew Stafford was placed on injured reserve and is likely done for the year due to bruising around his spine.
  • John Wolford is dealing with a neck issue sustained in the loss to the Seahawks, but is expected to start.
  • Wolford lost an earlier season matchup to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense, 27-17 (at Arizona).
• The Rams have lost six straight games by an average margin of 9.5 points per contest.
  • Opposing offenses are averaging 26.8 points per game against the Rams over the past four losses.
• Over the past three weeks, the Rams offense ranks 27^th in yards per play. On the season, they rank 31^st in total yards per game. Due to injuries, lack of a running game and hodge-podge of receivers, this is a shell of what the Rams offense was a year ago.
  • They have averaged just 2 red zone trips per game over the past three weeks. Only the Denver Broncos have fewer per game.
• Aaron Donald is likely out for this Thursday’s matchup due to an ankle sprain.
  • Without his pass rush services, the Rams front seven still managed four sacks and eight QB hits of Geno Smith.
  • The Raiders o-line has improved greatly as the season has played out. Derek Carr has been sacked just twice over the past three games.

Betting Pick:  Raiders -6, UNDER 44.5

The Raiders are as good as they want to be, but continue to play with fire on a weekly basis. To think they are a touchdown better than any team is truly debatable. However, based on John Wolford’s track record, he is who he is and that is at-best an NFL back-up and mop-up option. Another 300+ combined yard performance by Adams and Jacobs isn’t out of the realm of possibility. The only factor that will snatch defeat from the jaws of an ATS victory is losing the turnover battle and handing Wolford short fields in which to work with.