Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/11/2025 6:10 PM EDT

We have your Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Philadelphia Phillies hit the road to face the Cincinnati Reds.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Cincinnati Reds -120 BetMGM / Philadelphia Phillies +105 Caesars
Best Spread Odds: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -190 ESPN BET / Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -190 Caesars
Best Total Odds: Over 9.5 -110 Caesars / Under 9.5 -108 Fanduel

Game Info

Date: August 11, 2025
Time: 6:10 PM EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
TV: -

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies, leading the NL East with a 68-49 record, are riding high after a dominant three-game road sweep of the Texas Rangers. This impressive performance has given them a 5.5-game cushion over the New York Mets. Their next challenge takes them to Great American Ball Park to face the Cincinnati Reds, who are currently 62-57 and battling for a Wild Card spot, sitting just 1.5 games behind the Mets.

The pitching matchup for this opener features Philadelphia's Taijuan Walker (4-5, 3.53 ERA) against Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott (8-2, 2.34 ERA). Walker is coming off his best start of the season, tossing six scoreless innings against the Orioles. While his road ERA is a solid 2.80, his numbers tend to inflate under the lights, where he's allowed 12 of his 14 home runs this season. He'll face a Reds offense that is tied for 21st in MLB in home runs.

Andrew Abbott has been a breakout star for the Reds, boasting the second-lowest ERA in the National League among starters. However, his performance has seen a slight dip since the All-Star break, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his last four starts. Despite a rough outing against the Phillies earlier this season where he lasted less than four innings, the Reds have a 3-0 record in his three career starts against Philadelphia.

Offensively, the Phillies have been consistent, ranking 4th in batting average (.255) and 5th in on-base percentage (.326). Their bullpen has also been a strength, with recent acquisitions like Jhoan Duran bolstering an already formidable relief corps. The Reds' offense has been potent lately, scoring 31 runs over their last five games, but their bullpen has shown some vulnerability. This game sets up as a compelling battle between two teams with playoff aspirations.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the Cincinnati Reds hold an advantage in head-to-head matchups against the Philadelphia Phillies, with 88 wins compared to the Phillies' 71. When playing at home, the Reds have secured 52 of those victories, while the Phillies have won 34 on the road in Cincinnati. This season, the Phillies lead the series 2-1. Interestingly, the under has hit in two of the three games played between these two teams in 2025. The Reds have also found success when Andrew Abbott is on the mound against Philadelphia, holding a 3-0 record in his career starts against them.

Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs

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Despite Great American Ball Park's reputation as a hitter-friendly venue, the sharp money is leaning heavily towards the Under 9.5 runs in this matchup. This suggests that professional bettors are respecting the current form of both starting pitchers more than the park factors. Andrew Abbott has been pitching at an elite level for the Reds this season, and while his recent starts have seen a slight regression, his overall ERA remains outstanding. Taijuan Walker, for the Phillies, is coming off a strong scoreless outing and has a respectable road ERA. Both teams have capable bullpens, with the Phillies' relief corps being particularly strong. Given the sharp money movement and the potential for a more tactical, well-pitched game than the park might suggest, the Under 9.5 runs offers compelling value. You can find the best odds for the Under 9.5 at -108 with Fanduel.

Top Player Prop Picks

J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 Hits

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Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has been consistently getting on base, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop an attractive play. He has hit the over in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 20 games. For the season, Realmuto has hit the over on this line in 67.01% of his appearances. Against the Cincinnati Reds in 2025, he's hit the over in 66.67% of games, and in 2024, he had a perfect 100% hit rate against them. When playing on the road in 2025, he's hit the over 68.75% of the time. The best odds for Realmuto Over 0.5 Hits are -245 at BetRivers.

TJ Friedl Over 0.5 Hits

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Cincinnati Reds outfielder TJ Friedl presents a strong case for the Over 0.5 Hits prop. He has hit the over in 80% of his last 10 games, demonstrating excellent recent form. His season-long hit rate for this prop stands at 66.96%. Playing at home in 2025, Friedl has hit the over 66.04% of the time. While his 2025 performance against the Phillies is 66.67% over, his overall consistency makes this a solid pick. The best odds for Friedl Over 0.5 Hits are -230 at DraftKings.

Edmundo Sosa Over 0.5 Hits

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Philadelphia Phillies infielder Edmundo Sosa is another strong candidate for the Over 0.5 Hits prop. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games, showing consistent recent performance. More impressively, Sosa has hit the over in 100% of his games against the Cincinnati Reds in 2025, and 50% in 2024. When playing on the road in 2025, he's hit the over 53.33% of the time. With favorable odds, this prop offers good value. The best odds for Sosa Over 0.5 Hits are -155 at DraftKings.

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