The Miami Heat took care of business in Game 1 of the Conference Semifinals, and they enter tonight as 8.5-point favorites against the 76ers, who are still without Joel Embiid due to injury. In the Game 1 victory, Miami held James Harden to only 16 points on 38.5% shooting from the field, and 28.6% shooting from deep.
For the Heat, they were led by their usual cast of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro off the bench. Kyle Lowry will once again be out tonight with a hamstring injury, which is a big blow to this lineup, but the Heat's depth just overwhelmed Philadelphia, and in the second half, they put the game out of reach.
However, there is a reason that a series is not settled after one game. Tonight, we are here to give you the best picks for Game 2 of this series. Will the Heat protect home court once again, or will the 76ers pick up a massive road victory, and keep their heads above water?
Let's talk about it.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Trends:
- Miami is 10-3 ATS In Their Last 13 Games
- The Total has gone Under in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
- Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS In Their Last 9 Road Games
- The Total Has Gone Under In 5 of Philadelphia's Last 6 Games
Where In The World Is James Harden?
The 76ers have a championship roster, however, a championship roster is worthless when the best player is on the sidelines. Although Harden is one of the more prolific scorers in the game, and even the history of the game, he needs to step up big time tonight. If not, the Sixers are going to be in a lot of trouble, and the impatience from this fan base will only grow.
Harden is only averaging 18.6 points per game during the postseason, but he is shooting 36.6% from deep. The problem is that he just simply does not look like himself out there. He is not shooting the ball effectively, he is not getting to the free throw line as often, and despite his 9.4 assists per game during the playoffs, he is not elevating the 76ers as one would hope.
The good news for 76ers fans is with Lowry out for Miami, that opens up the floor a little bit more for the 76ers, and Harden should have a big night. While the Heat do have one of the best defenses in the game, this is the perfect recipe for a big night from Harden.
Lowry also missed Game 1, but I have a really hard time believing the 76ers are going to shoot 17% from deep as a team again.
I can already hear the haters, so let me clarify. Lowry is not a great defensive player, but he is a veteran, a champion, and he has played in a lot of playoff games. He knows what he needs to do, and being without him is a major advantage to the 76ers, but especially Harden.
The Tyler Herro Show:
It is hard to put into words just how important Herro is for the Heat. Not only is he their best pure-scorer, but he provides an excellent boost off the bench, and that is pretty evident by him being named the Sixth Man of The Year earlier this week.
By the way, can you really be considered a "Sixth man" if you are playing 32.6 minutes per game? I guess by the letter of the law, sure, but he is a starter who just chills on the bench for the first few minutes of the game.
Anyway, while Herro could be considered one of the more important players, if not the most important player on the team (notice how I did not say best), he has had a couple of clunkers in these playoffs. In the first round against the Hawks, Herro only averaged 12.8 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field, and an awful 17.9% from three.
Herro also has two games this postseason with under 10 points scored. The funny thing is, the Heat won both of those games by 24 points, so maybe Herro is dragging down the Heat? Someone has to start the conversation.
The Heat are 28-9 this season when Herro scores over 20 points, and they are only 16-13 when Herro is held below that number. Again, Herro is not their best player, but it is pretty clear how important his scoring off the bench is for Miami.
76ers-Heat Prediction:
Currently, the Pickwatch experts are backing the 76ers, with 64% of the bets coming in on Philadelphia to cover the 8.5-point spread. I usually like to fade the public just to be "that guy" but they call them "experts" for a reason, folks.
As a victim of betting on the 76ers in Game 1, I feel conflicted. Watching that game, it is pretty clear that with Embiid out, Miami is the best team in this series. However, even with a poor shooting night, and having to overcome DeAndre Jordan showing up to the game on time, ready to play, the 76ers were in the game up until the Heat's massive run in the third quarter.
As I said, the Heat handled the 76ers in the first game of the series, but they did not look good doing it, and with Lowry out again, we are looking at some significant value with the 76ers tonight. On the season, the 76ers are 0-1 when they are underdogs of at least 8.5 points, but on the flip side, the Heat were only 5-12 ATS when they were favored by at least 8.5 points.
All the conditions are right for the 76ers to have a bounce-back night. They may not win the game outright, but that is a lot of points to win by, and Miami's offense did not look great in Game 2.
Give me the Sixers.
