Last Thursday, the Bills dominated the Patriots in nearly every facet of the game and even a 17-7 Buffalo lead at halftime felt unsurmountable. And it was as New England’s offense remained mired in an inefficient quagmire of “meh” before losing 24-10 to drop to 6-6 overall and 6-5-1 against the spread.

When we last saw the Cardinals, prior to their Week 13 BYE, Kyler Murray had returned from injury and the offense appeared to have some rhythm against the Chargers. That was until Arizona was forced to punt on their last three fourth quarter possessions, which allowed Justin Herbert to rally his offense, score with less than 20 seconds to go in the game, convert the two-point conversion and escape with a 25-24 win at State Farm Stadium. The Cards are 4-8 overall (1-6 at home) and 6-6 against the spread this season.

Line Movement

The Patriots opened as 2-point road favorites, but Week 14 odds can be found as low as New England -1 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Cardinals moneyline odds are anywhere between +105 and +110. The over-under point total opened at 44 and remains so at some outlets, but can be found as high as 44.5 on other oddsboards. Shop around if you’re feeling frisky. The OVER has hit in five of the Cardinals last six games.

Patriots News and Notes

• The Patriots rank in the bottom third of the NFL in passing and rushing yards and total touchdowns. Frustration is starting to set in …

pic.twitter.com/8Usj75n3Lr

— sportsvids99 (@sportsvids991) December 2, 2022

• So, Mac Jones is pissed, Kendrick Bourne is pissed, Rhamondre Stevenson is fumbling the football, and Bill Belichick is adamant about trusting the process and the playbook.

“The system that we have in place, I feel good about,” Belichick said during his weekly press conference. “Which includes the offensive staff, it includes me, it includes whatever the whole process is on offense, defense and special teams.”

• New England is tied with Denver for 32^nd in red zone conversion rate. They convert red zone trips into touchdowns less than 38 percent of the time.
• The Patriots offense has converted just 27% of its third downs over the past three games – ranked 29^th.
• Typically, the great equalizer has been the strength of the Patriots “bend, don’t break” defensive schemes.
  • They allow just 5.0 yards per play this season, ranked 6^th right behind the 49ers, and 4.4 yards per play over their past three games, ranked 3^rd.

Cardinals News and Notes

• Did you know that in Week 12 against the Chargers, Arizona running back James Connor racked up his first 100+ yard rushing performance since October 2020?
  • Patriots rush defense has allowed just 82.7 yards per game over their past three.
• What happened to Arizona’s efficiency on down and distance?
  • In 2021, they ranked 5^th in third down conversion rate (45.3%)
  • In 2022, they rank 24^th in third down conversion rate (37.7%)
  • Three consecutive three-and-outs against the Chargers in the fourth quarter allowed Los Angeles to rally and win.
  • This next stat could be part of the problem …
• Arizona ranks first … in offensive penalties. Hard to convert on third, when you’re playing behind the sticks.
• The interesting twist to this regression is that the Cardinals are still converting ~60% of their red zone trips into touchdowns albeit one less red zone trip per game year-over-year (3.8 vs. 2.8).
  • New England RZ defense ranks in the middle of the pack.
  • Arizona’s, *deep sigh*, ranks 32^nd. Too bad the Patriots average the fourth-fewest red zone trips per game. Sheesh, this game is going to be a tough watch, isn’t it?

Betting Pick: Cardinals +1.5, UNDER 44

I love waffles, hate waffling – especially on ATS picks, but here we are and the Cardinals coming off the BYE is something I want to believe can lead to an upset of one of Bill Belichick’s worst squads ever.