A few weeks ago, there was a passing of the mantle of sorts in the NFC with the Los Angeles Rams taking down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s possible that we saw the same thing on Sunday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills heading into Arrowhead Stadium and downing the Kansas City Chiefs.
The final score was 38-20, which both obscures how close the game had been—Bills were up 24-13 at half—as well as just how completely the Bills slammed the door in the second half. Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes finished the game 33/54 for 272 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. With those 54 passing attempts, it’s probably not totally surprising Mahomes was also the Chiefs’ leading rusher.
Bills QB Josh Allen, on the other hand, was also his team’s leading rusher but was supported well by running back Zack Moss who had 37 yards on the ground and 55 through the air as a receiver. Allen finished 15/26 for 315 yards. Some quick mental math will show you exactly how the Bills attacked the Chiefs vertically, taking chunk play after chunk play and demoralizing the Chiefs defense.
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders put it well, in this tweet: “Kansas City's defensive DVOA is now 29.6%, which is the seventh-worst ever tracked by DVOA through five games. Oh, it's as bad as it looks, no question.”
The follow up response, by Fansided’s Matt Verderame is even worse: “They’re terrible in every facet. They blow coverages and don’t tackle, but make up for it by getting no pass rush and not stopping the run.”
In many ways, the Bills, at 4-1, are the team all of us thought the Chiefs would be this season...and the team they’ve been since Mahomes joined the squad. Their offense is epic and the defense is overachieving mostly through depth and scheme.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are left searching for answers as they head into this week’s matchup against Washington Football Team.
Of course, none of you would’ve been surprised by the outcome if you’re subscribed to Pickwatch Pro and had read this week’s Upset Watch.
What We Got Wrong...But Should’ve Gotten Right
Expecting a bounceback, 90 percent of experts and users tracked by Pickwatch selected the Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Chicago Bears. Of course, that did not happen...in fact, the prediction looks downright foolish as the Bears won 20-9 in a game that Raiders QB Derek Carr looked as bad as he’s looked all season.
The offensive line in Oakland overachieved in their 3-0 start, but the scouting report is officially public on these guys. Pressure Carr, don’t let him get comfortable—even if you’re not actually hitting him—and they can’t get the ball out deep. The Bears are not a great team, but they’re at 3-2 and have a couple of “statement wins” against both the Bengals and now the Raiders. If rookie QB Justin Fields keeps improving...
What None of us Could’ve Saw Coming
This game was bananas. With 84 percent of those tracked picking the Carolina Panthers to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, what happened was a rather historic laying of the proverbial egg by the Panthers offense AND a Panthers defense that wasn’t able to make up for it—even against the moribund Eagles.
Yeah, I get it, statistically at least 16 percent of those tracked saw it coming (a whole lot of those experts being from Eagles blogs if we’re being honest). Plus, Panthers QB Sam Darnold has had his fair share of moments like this (and then some!) in the past. Yet, everything we’ve seen this season said this would be a cakewalk for the Panthers at home. Now, all of a sudden, their immediate schedule (Vikings, Giants, Falcons, Patriots) could be anything from 4-0 to 0-4 and I’m not sure anyone knows exactly who this team is any more.
The Schottey Six: Statistical Rankings You Definitely Didn’t Predict (Through Week 5)
1. Arizona Cardinals | No. 6 Scoring Defense — If you’re looking for the real reason the Cardinals are undefeated, it’s not the offense.
2. Los Angeles Chargers | No. 3 Passing Attack — Everybody expected QB Justin Herbert to take a step forward in Year 2, but he’s suddenly on everyone’s MVP watchlist.
3. Trevon Diggs (CB Cowboys) | 6 INT — It’s amazing what a cornerback can do when the people in front of him play better.
4. Miami Dolphins | No. 30 Defense — A certified genius only a few months ago, is Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores just the next Belichick Disciple to fail?
5. Raiders’ Casey Hayward Jr. No. 3 CB & Nate Hobbs No. 9 CB via PFF — With suddenly so much to be concerned about with the Raiders, it’s a 32 year old veteran and a fifth-round rookie that are the brightest spots.
6. New Orleans Saints | No. 31 Passing Offense — Of course Jameis Winston isn’t Drew Brees, but suddenly Sean Payton isn’t Sean Payton.
Cleaning Out the Notebook
— I’m not sure anyone would’ve predicted that Jets-Falcons in London would be a better example of football than Rams-Seahawks on Thursday Night, but it was. The Seahawks are officially a mess and will likely have a Top 10 draft pick with QB Geno Smith set for extended action.
— First coach fired is always a hot topic, and while Jon Gruden and Urban Meyer have certainly made things interesting, the Minnesota Vikings’ Mike Zimmer probably (briefly?) saved his job thanks to his kicker.
— I'm more than impressed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers thrashing of the Miami Dolphins. Obviously, that's a chalk victory, but it's impressive just how much the Buccaneers won by as they haven't played the role of dominant favorite very well this season. The Buccaneers don't have another contest against a clear cut contender until the Bills in December, so this could be a very dominant stretch.
— Saw a lot of people publishing “why you’re all wrong about the Giants” pieces after their victory against the Giants. That was always foolish. This is a bad Giants team on paper and it’s poorly coached. They’ll win some games, but they’re not suddenly a good team just because that’s good for national media.
— The Lions are either the unluckiest team in football or they need to do a lot of soul searching for why they’re always in situations where the other team can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. I think it’s a little bit of both...
— The Denver Broncos are built to stop modern NFL offenses and the Steelers are built like a 1970’s offense. I wouldn’t worry about that Broncos defense. It’ll be just fine.
— Houston Texans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly outdueled Bill and Steve Belichick in a game the Texans had no business being in. Kelly has impressed a lot of people around the NFL, and while it’ll be difficult to jump from a terrible Texans team to a top job, his resume is getting some highlights.
— In a football heavy portion of the year, I took a break and went on a date with the wife to see Hamilton in Jacksonville. Like many, I’ve experienced the show mostly through the soundtrack and on Disney+. It is an entirely new experience on the stage and was well worth missing some fantastic college games on Saturday night.
— Personal football coaching nugget. My high school team won 36-0 in their Homecoming matchup against a Lake Howell club which has been down as of late but has some notable NFL alumni, including wide receiver Brandon Marshall among others. As offensive line coach, my group had a pretty solid day considering we lost two guards in practice during the week and trotted out two freshmen. The future of the program is bright…
— The season finale of Ted Lasso was a masterclass in television. At one point, I was shocked how many people felt that Season 2 was a disappointment. Now, those people just look insane.
Parting Schot
— “When you are happy, you enjoy the music. But, when you are sad, you understand the lyrics.” —Frank Ocean