At this point in the 2021 NFL season, the biggest question is whether Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford or Wide Receiver Cooper Cupp is bringing home the MVP trophy at the end of the year.
In Week 3, the Rams smoked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-24 in a game that never felt even that close after the early punches had been traded.
I got this one wrong. It wasn’t only because I overemphasize the effect of Buccaneers QB Tom Brady on just about every game. It was also because I underestimated just how far the Tampa Bay defense has fallen even though they returned all of their starters and got better (on paper) during the offseason. The Buccaneers are toward the bottom of the NFL in both defensive points and yards allowed—a trend that will certainly work against their chances of repeating as Super Bowl Champions if continued.
The Rams, meanwhile, are on absolute fire. Head Coach Sean McVay looks every bit the genius that his press clippings have always said he’s been. The defense has taken a step back from last season’s downright excellence, but is still just inside the Top 10 in terms of points allowed. Cupp leads all receivers in both yards (367) and touchdowns (5) and is tied with Green Bay Packers receiver Davante Adams with 25 receptions. That’s notable, because Adams and Packers QB Aaron Rodgers are basically psychically linked at this point. Stafford and Cupp are doing this as a brand new connection.
What We Got Wrong...But Should’ve Gotten Right
When we all looked at the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots, 66 percent picked the Patriots because no one was sure “which” Saints team would show up. Would QB Jameis Winston be the “god tier” passer he was in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers or would he throw the game away as he did against the Carolina Panthers?
Neither.
A third Saints team showed up—one that leaned on a battle-hardened offensive line and a rushing attack which may be their best attribute. The Patriots were absolutely not ready and continued to struggle stopping the run. Winston barely had to go to the air, and when the Patriots tried to, rookie passer Mac Jones rarely had anyone open.
70 percent of experts and Pickwatch users picked the New York Giants in a trend that probably said more about how bad the Atlanta Falcons have been and far less about anyone’s confidence in the Giants. Instead, the Falcons rolled over New York and Giants owner John Mara reportedly thrashed some trash cans after the game.
It was the hardest hit by any Giant on the day. It was not the only trash that needs to be taken out of the building, however…
The Falcons have more talent than the Giants, although they’re rebuilding and QB Matt Ryan isn’t the franchise passer he once was, this was just an outclassing.
What None of us Could’ve Seen Coming
While 80 percent of users and experts picked the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, it will be difficult for any of us to pick the Steelers again thanks to the play of QB Ben Roethlisberger who looks (once again) like the wheels have entirely come off. The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz said it best without saying anything at all.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ offensive pass protection looks...better than any of us had expected, a tenuous trend which was very unlikely to continue against such a vaunted Steelers front.
Although 23 percent of those tracked thought the Minnesota Vikings could pull it off against the Seattle Seahawks, many of those picks were put into the can before running back Dalvin Cook ended up sitting this one out. Instead of faltering without their best offensive weapon, QB Kirk Cousins stepped up and turned in a masterful performance. The Seahawks high-flying offense? It put up only 17 points and QB Russell Wilson looked absolutely pedestrian.
The Schottey Six: Surprising Offensive Performances of Early 2021
1. Derek Carr (QB Raiders) — The Raiders are 3-0, and Carr is the top passer in the NFL. I may need to issue a few formal apologies.
2. Cooper Cupp (WR Rams) — Enough said on Cupp above, but realize that this connection might only get better.
3. Sam Darnold (QB Panthers) — Darnold is not the reason for the Panthers success, but after being entirely written off by the Jets, he’s becoming a fringe NFL starter...and doing so without a lot of NFL-caliber weapons.
4. Daniel Jones (QB Giants)—Jones isn’t surprising as a passer...he is who I thought he was: very average. But, while trucking 300-pounder Grady Jarrett on Sunday, he continued his surprising streak of being one of the best running quarterbacks in the league.
5. Brian Allen (C Rams) — Once considered one of the major weaknesses on a Rams team looking to contend, Allen has been stellar in keeping Stafford upright.
6. Ja’Marr Chase (WR Bengals)— After not being able to catch a cold in the preseason, Chase has been one of the best rookies through three weeks.
Cleaning Out the Notebook
—After worrying about the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago, I’m looking ahead on their schedule and only seeing three or four really tough matchups ahead for the rest of the season. The offense was able to (finally) find its footing against a really tough Washington defense.
— It’s time for wholesale change in the Giants’ organization. There is a lot of value in consistency, but the way things worked 20 years ago aren’t working any more. Find new, innovative ideas and even if they fail, it won’t be for lack of trying...which is what it looks like now.
— The Arizona Cardinals let the Jacksonville Jaguars stick around a little too long for my liking this week. We’ll learn far more about the Cardinals next week against the Rams.
— We’ll also learn a lot more about the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4 against the Oakland Raiders. With the Chiefs (likely only momentarily) stumbling and the Denver Broncos having only beat up on the worst teams in the NFL, we will see one of these teams take the early lead in the AFC West’s playoff race
— The Detroit Lions are a far more competitive team than in 2020, but that’s equaled zero wins. Sadly, moral victories—even cheated by a non-called delay of game—aren’t worth anything in the NFL. Being “in” games doesn’t attract free agents. Eventually, this team needs to shrug off generations of this and that’s only going to happen with more talent in the building.
— After Ravens Kicker Justin Tucker hit a 66-yarder to win it, Twitter almost immediately started talking about the inevitable day when a 69-yarder is converted. My bet is on a descendant of Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski.
— For a team with so much offensive talent and “questions” about starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the San Francisco 49ers drop a lot of footballs. Jimmy doesn’t look to be the only problem offensively.
— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is...just not good, at least not right now.
— Miami Dolphins QB Jacoby Brissett is a better option in 2021 than Tua Tagovailoa.
— The Indianapolis Colts pushed all of their chips toward the center of the table and “won” the offseason. At 0-3, it’s time to fire up the hot seat for everyone in that building.
— Clemson is currently ranked No. 25 in the nation when they really shouldn’t be ranked at all. I’m a pretty avid “hater” of Clemson HC Dabo Swinney who is by all accounts just one smarmy individual. Basically, I’m revelling in their current downswing—even if it doesn’t last long.
— It’s been a “down” year for some of the top QBs in College Football, but if Cincinnati is able to take down Notre Dame this weekend, look for QB Desmond Ridder to put himself into the first-overall pick conversation. He’s tall (6’4”, 215) and ridiculously athletic. This season, he’s improved his passing accuracy even more and a win against a powerhouse like the Fighting Irish will be great for the highlight reel.
— I mentioned last week that this would be the first (of many) weekends where I coach two high school and two youth flag football games all in the span of three days. The high school games did not go well, but pleased to say both of my sons are starting 1-0 in their fall season.
— My picks are getting better each and every week, but kudos to both Josh Katzowitz and John Halpin of Pickwatch for nailing this week and going 12-3 heading into Monday Night Football. Josh has the Dallas Cowboys, while John has the Philadelphia Eagles.
Parting Schot
“If you aren’t going to go all the way, why go at all?” —Joe Namath