One of my friends from college recently posed this question on social media:

“Has “Bet $5, get $200” replaced “Let me ask you about your car’s warranty.” as the most annoying thing in {insert state where sports betting is legal}?”

While the two industries share similar real estate in the online marketing abyss, the truth is, they aren’t in the same ballpark…yet. For one, sports betting operators aren’t calling your phone unsolicited to earn your business. Second, legal sports betting is fairly new in a number of states and this promotional cycle is heavy because each operator is trying to drive a stake into a virtual wild, wild west and claim the most market share.

However, have you also noticed that these sports betting companies aren’t promoting classic odds like point spreads, moneylines and over-under point totals? With advancements in instantaneous sports data pinging back and forth, online sportsbooks can now leverage the technology to market towards a younger demo and educate and introduce alternative betting markets like live in-game betting where you can wager on every play, same-game parlays, which allows players to build out more custom bet slips and, my personal favorite, the player prop.

What is an NFL player prop bet?

Simply put, an NFL player prop bet and player prop bet odds are wagers placed on an event not directly tied to the outcome of the game. Whereas moneylines, point spread and point total bets are settled at the end of regulation, team and player props can be achieved while the game is in progress.

For example, Patrick Mahomes will pass for Over/Under 350.5 yards is a prop bet because the bet doesn’t matter if the Chiefs win or lose. All that matters is that your wager is on the right side of 350.5.

Another popular NFL prop bet is the first touchdown scorer or anytime touchdown scorer. Simply scan through each player’s odds – from both teams – and handicap your personal favorite to find the end zone first in the game or at any point during the 60 minutes + overtime (if necessary).

How to Use Fantasy Football Points Against Data to Handicap Player Props

If you’ve ever played competitive fantasy football, chances are you are familiar with the “fantasy points against” research tab. This resource digs into every NFL box score and averages how many fantasy points each defense is allowing to opposing positions. On the Yahoo platform, it also highlights pass/rush/rec yards, targets and touchdowns allowed by NFL defenses per game.

For example, the Houston Texans allowed a league-high 31.57 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. This breaks down to an average of nearly 142 rush yards and 1.8 touchdowns allowed per contest. Points per reception scoring does apply in this instance. Your league’s fantasy points against page may different dependent on settings.

Below you’ll find a complete breakdown of each NFL divisional playoff team’s fantasy points against versus each position. Two things jump out at me right away, the Jaguars defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends right before facing Travis Kelce and the Cowboys allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends right before facing a red-hot George Kittle who has appeared to find his groove once again with Brock Purdy behind center.

Team	Opp. QB FPA	Opp. RB FPA	Opp. WR FPA	Opp. TE FPA
Jaguars	18.31 (9th-most)	23.39 (11th-most)	32.15 (13th-fewest)	13.52 (8th-most)
Chiefs	20.22 (2nd-most)	22.92 (14th-most)	35.22 (8th-most)	12.19 (15th)
Bengals	14.24 (3rd-fewest)	20.15 (8th-fewest)	31.36 (12th-fewest)	12.41 (13th-fewest)
Bills	14.43 (4th-fewest)	20.84 (10th-fewest)	35.63 (7th-most)	9.00 (3rd-fewest)
Giants	15.97 (18th)	21.80 (17th)	32.48 (18th)	13.21 (11th-most)
Eagles	14.74 (7th-fewest)	22.26 (16th)	30.09 (7th-fewest)	11.22 (13th-fewest)
Cowboys	15.23 (11th-fewest)	18.08 (3rd-fewest)	36.48 (4th-most)	8.48 (2nd-fewest)
49ers	14.71 (6th-fewest)	16.31 (Fewest in NFL)	36.81 (3rd-most)	10.21 (8th-fewest)

You’ll also want to dig into the data to find nuggets like this:

The Chiefs allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks = good for Trevor Lawrence prop bets.
The Chiefs rank in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. This may lead one to fade Evan Engram prop bets.
However, Kansas City allows 0.5 touchdowns to opposing tight ends per game, tied for third-most in the league.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Player Prop Picks

Quarterback - Trevor Lawrence O249.5 Passing Yards & 2+ Pass TDs (SGP)

While I do believe the Chiefs take care of business at Arrowhead and likely cover, the O/U on this game is 52. Thus, the Jaguars - via Trevor Lawrence - need to kick in some offensive production at some point. He has nine games where he's passed for 250-or-more yards and eight games with two-or-more passing touchdowns. The second passing touchdown comes late in the second half Saturday afternoon, but I like this same-game parlay.

Running Back - Joe Mixon UNDER 54.5 (ALT)

The Bengals offensive line is in shambles and Mixon is not great in pass protection leading me to believe Cincinnati will play Samaje Perine more against the Bills to protect Joe Burrow. Here are Mixon's rush totals since Halloween:

27 yards
153 yards
20 yards
96 yards
21 yards
65 yards
27 yards
39 yards

I don't trust him and this alt O/U is part of a same-game parlay bet slip I have with Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown, Dawson Knox anytime touchdown, and Josh Allen over 39.5 rushing yards at +1200.

Wide Receiver - Deebo Samuel Anytime TD

The Cowboys allow a league-high 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers. I could get cute and ride Brandon Aiyuk at +205, but I like Samuel at +140 to score against the Big D this weekend.

Wide Receiver - Michael Gallup O35.5 Rec Yards

The rush-first Seahawks had three receivers finish with 39-or-more yards against the 49ers secondary last weekend. Gallup has posted 36-or-more receiving yards in three of his past four games with two scores. The thinking goes with how well Dalton Schultz played against the Buccaneers, more attention will be geared towards him and CeeDee Lamb is going to be smothered, which allows for Gallup to enjoy some softer coverage in what is expected to be the matchup of the weekend!

Tight End - Evan Engram Anytime TD

You can get Engram anytime TD at +245 on the DraftKings app. As noted above, the Chiefs allow 0.5 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends and based on Engram's usage as of late, this seems to be pretty solid odds value. He was held in check the last two weeks of the regular season, but exploded for seven receptions on 11 targets for 93 yards and a tuddy against the Chargers last weekend.