Titans quarterback Josh Dobbs did enough in his first NFL start to earn another by just competing in Tennessee's 27-13 loss to the Cowboys, ten days after the franchise signed the QB off the Lions practice squad. The Titans' sixth-consecutive loss dropped them to 7-9 overall and 8-7-1 against the spread after failing to cover as 13.5-point home dogs.

The Jaguars built a 28-point lead over the Texans and Houston never had a shot in what has become a lost season. With their 31-3 Week 17 win, Jacksonville heads into Week 18 winners of four straight, an 8-8 SU record and 8-8 ATS record.

Line Movement

The Jaguars opened as 6.5-point home favorites and remain so at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Titans moneyline odds are +235 / +240. The over-under point total opened at 39.5, but has ticked up to O/U 40.0 as the consensus total. The OVER has cashed in four of the Jaguars last six games whereas the UNDER has paid out in 10 of the Titans last 13 games.

Reminder: the winner of this game earns the AFC South crown and a first-round home game. The Jaguars haven't won the AFC South since 2017.

Jacksonville is 33-to-1 favorites to win Super Bowl 57, while the Titans are 200-to-1.

Titans News and Notes

• Tennessee led the Jaguars in their first meeting 14-7 after the first quarter before Jacksonville outscored them 29-8 over the next three stanzas.
• The Titans committed four turnovers in that matchup, which the Jaguars offense converted into 20 points.
• Derrick Henry is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing the Cowboys game to rest a hip injury.
  • He rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Jags earlier this season, but his two lost fumbles proved costly.
• Josh Dobbs competed 20-39 passes for 232 yards with a touchdown and interception in his first career start.
  • With his mobility outside the pocket, it'll be interesting to see what the Titans draw up in terms of run-pass option if/when Henry is lined up behind him.
• The Titans are averaging 14.8 points per game during their six-game losing streak.
  • Tennessee has allowed 25.6 over their past six games, but just 21 over their past three.
• Tennessee's third-down defense - which ranks third in the NFL this season - has dropped off significantly as of late - ranked bottom 11 in NFL.

Jaguars News and Notes

• Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• During their four-game winning streak, Trevor Lawrence tossed seven touchdowns in wins over the Titans and Cowboys and none against the Texans or Jets.
• Heading into Week 18, the Jaguars played four of its past five games on the road.
• Jacksonville is averaging just three (3) penalties per game over the past three weeks, second-fewest in the league.
  • The Titans are averaging seven (7) penalties per game for a league-high 72 lost yards of field position.
• Tight end Evan Engram caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns in the Jaguars win last month.
  • Statistically speaking, Tennessee struggles against opposing tight ends, which could make Engram a fantastic player prop candidate Saturday night.

Betting Pick: Titans +6.5

It's difficult to truly handicap this matchup based solely on what occurred in the first. Ryan Tannehill is on IR now, Derrick Henry isn't going to lose two fumbles again and the Jaguars aren't going to convert four turnovers into 20 points. Those latter two assumptions allow for a competitive football game where Mike Vrabel's Titans may not win, but they won't be embarrassed off the field either.