The Lions outscored the Bears 34-0 over the final three quarters in a 41-10 shellacking on their NFC North foe. Detroit heads into the last week of the regular season 8-8 overall and 11-5 against the spread after covering the -4 inside Ford Field.

The Packers also lit up the scoreboard for 41 points in their 41-17 win over the Vikings. Though Minnesota finally snatched an NFC North title, Green controls its own destiny heading into Week 18 at 8-8 straight up and 8-8 against the spread after covering as 3.5-point home favorites.

Line Movement

The Packers opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but the consensus line has ticked up to Green Bay -4.5 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Lions moneyline odds are +185 / +193. The over-under point total opened at 47, but has jumped to O/U 49/49.5 as the most common total. The OVER has cashed in 12 of the Lions last 18 and five of the Packers last seven games.

Detroit is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the Packers. The Lions won the first meeting earlier this season, 15-9.

Note: if the Seahawks beat the Rams in the 4 p.m. ET window, Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention and would only be playing the role of spoiler in their Sunday night tilt against the Packers.

Lions News and Notes

• Detroit started the season 1-6
  • They have won 7 of their past 9 games.
  • Average margin of victory in those 7 wins: 13 points
  • Average margin of defeat in those 2 losses: 8.5
• The 37-23 loss AT Carolina is troubling ahead of this matchup because Sam Darnold didn't have to win the game.
  • D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard combined for 290 rush yards.
  • Detroit's defense has allowed 190 rush yards per game over the past three.
  • The Packers rush offense ranks 13th in the NFL.
  • Green Bay will look to grind clock as to avoid a shootout with the Lions passing game.
• The Lions failed to convert any of Aaron Rodgers' three interceptions into any points earlier this season.
• On the season, the Lions red zone offense ranks fourth. However, over the past three games, Detroit has converted just 46.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, which ranks 24th during that stretch.
  • Detroit's third down conversion rate is down 8% over the past three weeks, too.
  • Are they fading?
• To reiterate, if the Seahawks win earlier in the day Sunday, the Lions are eliminated from the playoffs and would assume the line will move in favor of Green Bay.

Packers News and Notes

• Green Bay has won four straight by an average margin of 12.8 points, which features wins over the Bears, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings.
• Aaron Rodgers tossed three interceptions and the Packers offense was 0-4 in the red zone in their 15-9 loss to the Lions earlier this season.
  • Since that game, Rodgers' TD:INT ratio is 11:4 and Packers are 5-2.
• The Packers lead the league in turnover margin per game over the past three weeks at +2.0.
  • The Lions have committed the fewest turnovers this season.
• Green Bay is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Lions, but have covered in back-to-back years.
• Green Bay Sunday Night Forecast: temperatures in the high 20s.

Betting Pick: Packers -4.5, UNDER 49.5

Unlike in years past, Aaron Rodgers doesn't have to win this game via the pass. He can lean on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion to move the chains and hook up with this receiving corps sparingly. The heavy run attack will bleed the clock Sunday night and lead to fewer points being scored than the O/U 49.5.