The Cowboys trailed the Eagles by 10 points twice during their Week 16 matchup, but scored the game's final 13 points to rally and escape with a much-needed 40-34 win. Dallas improved to 11-4 overall, 8-1 at home and 9-6 against the spread after covering as 4-point home favorites.

With Ryan Tannehill sidelined following ankle surgery, the Titans offense struggled against the 1-win Texans and lost to Houston at home, 19-14. Tennessee fell to 7-8 overall and 8-6-1 against the spread after failing to cover as 3-point home favorites.

Week 17: Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans Game Info
Date	December 29, 2022, 8:15 PM ET
Stadium	Nissan Stadium
TV Coverage	Amazon
Opening Betting Odds	Cowboys -3 / O/U 44.5

Thursday Updates

- Line moved to Cowboys -14
- Tony Pollard likley not to play for Cowboys
- Josh Dobbs likley to start at QB for Titans
- Derrick Henry likely not to play

Line Movement

The Cowboys opened as 3-point home favorites on the look-ahead line pre-Tannehill ankle injury, but the line has soared as high as Dallas -10 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Titans moneyline odds are between +335 and +370. The over-under point total opened at 44.5, but can be found as low as O/U 42 as of Monday morning. The OVER has cashed in five consecutive Cowboys games, while the UNDER has hit in 9 of the Titans last 12 games.

Tennessee is 0-4-1 against the spread over the past five games.

The Cowboys odds to win Super Bowl 57 are +950, which means a $100 bet would win $950 should Dallas raise the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since the 1990s.

Cowboys News and Notes

The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Dallas has won five of their last six by an average margin of 18 points per victory.
Cowboys point differential in home games: 10.3 points (8-1 home)

Cowboys point differential in away games: 6.3 points (3-3 away)

Dak Prescott tossed three touchdown passes for the third time in four games, but he also tossed at least one interception for the fifth consecutive game (a pick 6) and 12^th pick in just 10 games.

The Titans defense has averaged one interception per game over the past three weeks.

The Cowboys pass rush, which has been quiet as of late, could eat well as the Titans o-line that has allowed 4.0 sacks per game the past three weeks.

Willis, a mobile quarterback, was sacked 4.0 times by the Texans, who rank 18^th in sacks per game.

Titans News and Notes

Tennessee has lost five straight games by an average margin of 10.2 points.
They are averaging a league-low 5.6 points per second half this season.
With Ryan Tannehill out for the season, Malik Willis doesn’t appear to be the solution.

He’s completing about 50% of his passes with zero touchdown passes, three interceptions and a rushing touchdown.
Josh Dobbs, who was just signed, would be next man up if Tennessee moved on from Willis on the short week.

The offense has leaned heavily on Derrick Henry the past three weeks:

Though he’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry on approximately 20 carries per game, if you dig into data of their loss to the Texans, Henry averaged about 3.5 yards per carry when you strip out his 48-yard touchdown run.
The Cowboys rank 22^nd against the rush and have allowed 131 rush yards per game over their past three contests.

Offensive Key Performance Indicators:

3^rd Down Conversion Rate: 36% - NFL rank 24th
Red Zone Conversion Rate: 68.4% - NFL rank 3^rd, but only 2.5 RZ att. per game, rank 31^st.

Defensive Key Performance Indicators:

Opp. 3^rd Down Conversion Rate: 31.8% - NFL rank 1^st
Opp. Red Zone Conversion Rate: 55.8% - NFL rank 17th

Forecast: 50% chance of rain, temperatures in high 40s

Betting Pick: Cowboys -10

Anybody who watches Thursday night football religiously knows wonky stuff happens and balls bounce in favor of the underdog more often than not. However, if Willis starts, the Cowboys defense is elite enough to force turnovers and wreak havoc in the backfield. Plus, it’s starting to become evident that the miles on Henry are starting to take a toll and a short week does the bruising running no favors. Whereas the Cowboys can roll out the two-headed beast of Zeke and Pollard.