Josh Allen and the Bills outscored the Bears 29-3 in the second half to rally and win 35-13 last weekend. Buffalo improved to 12-3 overall, 6-2 on the road and 7-7-1 against the spread after covering as 8-point road favorites.

The Patriots outscored the Bengals 18-0 in the second half of their Week 16 meeting, but a costly fumble at Cincinnati's five-yard line, in the game's final minutes stunted New England's comeback in a 22-18 Bengals victory. Cincy improved to 11-4 overall, 7-3 away and 12-3 against the spread after covering as 3-point road favorites.

Line Movement

The Bengals opened as 2.5-point home dogs, but the game has since become a proverbial pick'em at Cincinnati +1 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Bills moneyline odds are -120. The over-under point total opened at 48.5, but has ticked up to O/U 49.5 as the consensus total. The UNDER has cashed in nine of the Bills last 13 and four of the Bengals last five games.

Buffalo is the favorite to win Super Bowl 57 at +355, which means a $100 wager would pocket $355 should the Bills raise the Lombardi Trophy. The Bengals odds to win the Super Bowl are +800 behind the Chiefs, 49ers, and Eagles.

Bills News and Notes

• Buffalo has won six straight games by an average margin of 9.6 points.
  • The Bills beat the Patriots, Cincinnati's last opponent, by 14 points on December 1.
  • They are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The Bills offense continue to lead the league in third down conversion rate at 49.7%.
  • Opposing offenses convert just 37.9% against the Buffalo defense.
• Josh Allen and company have converted 80% of their red zone trips into touchdowns the past three games.
  • Opposing offenses have converted just 33% of their RZ trips into six points.
  • The Bengals defense ranks 9th in red zone defense.
• Buffalo's defense held Justin Fields to 11 yards on seven carries.
• The UNDER has cashed in seven of Buffalo's last eight road games.

Bengals News and Notes

• Cincinnati has won seven straight games by an average margin of 9 points.
  • Trailed the Buccaneers 17-3 at half, scored 33 unaswered points to win.
  • Led the Patriots 22-0, let Patriots score 18 unaswered points, but still won.
• The Bengals turned the ball over three times at New England, which cost them six points.
  • Buffalo's defense ranks fourth in takeaways (24 in 15 games).
• Starting offensive lineman La'el Collins is out for the season due to a torn ACL and MCL in his knee.
  • He was the Bengals big offseason acquisition to shore up protection around Joe Burrow.
  • Buffalo averages 2.6 sacks per game (ranked 11th).
• A Bengals loss and Ravens win over the Steelers would flip the AFC North standings back in favor of Baltimore who beat Cincinnati back in October.
  • The two teams meet again Week 18.
• Cincinnati has covered the spread in seven straight games (7-0).

Betting Pick: Bills -1, UNDER 49.5

This is typically a game I would fade for numerous reasons, but for the sake of this exercise, I'll back the Bills on the road. The Bengals have played with fire in each of their last two games, but escaped with the W. Buffalo knows how important locking up the AFC's No. 1 seed is heading into the playoffs and get the job done on the road again.