Did Brock Purdy help the 49ers win or did Dak Prescott cause the Cowboys to lose in the divisional playoff matchup last weekend? An argument can be made for the latter as Purdy posted his lowest QB rating (87.4) since becoming San Francisco's starter. His 214 passing yards came with no touchdowns or interceptions, while the defense picked off Prescott twice, which were converted into two field goals in a 19-12 final. Purdy's offense was just 1-for-3 in the red zone, which isn't ideal ahead of the NFC title game.
Guess Jalen Hurts' shoulder is healthy. Philadelphia's quarterback accounted for 21 of the Eagles' 28 first-half points in its 38-7 blowout win over the Giants in the divisional playoff round. Philly is only 9-8 ATS as a favorite this season, but 7-3 ATS as a home favorite, which they are in the NFC Championship game.
NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Game Info
January 29, 2023, 3:00 pm ET
Lincoln Financial Field
Opening Betting Odds
Eagles -1.5 / O/U 45.5
The Eagles opened as 1.5-point home favorites, but the consensus line has ticked up to Philadelphia -2.5 at the best online sportsbooks we track. The 49ers moneyline odds are around +120. The point total opened at 45.5, but has grown to O/U 46.5 as bookmakers and bettors believe a little more offense than originally expected. The UNDER has hit in four of the Eagles past five games, while the OVER has cashed in four of the 49ers past five games.
Philly is 9-5 ATS after a win. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS after a victory.
49ers News and Notes
- Brock Purdy has taken the majority of the snaps in eight games with seven starts. Only two of those games have come on the road and neither have left the Pacific Time Zone.
|Purdy H/A Splits||PYPG||Comp. %||TD||INT|
|Home (6 Games)||225.5||67.9%||12||2|
|Away (@SEA, @LVR)||250.0||63.9%||4||1|
Though it's a small sample size and 49ers have built huge leads in the second half, Purdy's fourth quarter production leaves little to be desired should the NFC Championship be close late.
|Brock Purdy||QBR||Comp. %||TD||INT|
|4th QTR||71.4 (more than 30 points lower than Q1-Q3)||55.8% (low)||0||1|
- Both 49ers running backs are a little banged up heading into Championship Sunday. Christian McCaffrey (calf contusion) and Elijah Mitchell (groin) are day-to-day, but are probable to play against the Eagles.
- Defensive lineman Charles Omenihu was arrested Monday on a misdemeanor domestic violence charge and slapped with a restraining order. He has 4.5 sacks this season and is part of the San Francisco imposing pass rush. No word on if this arrest would force him to sit out Sunday.
Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head
As great as Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts have played this season, my attention will be on the two elite defenses, which are pretty evenly matched.
Although the 49ers red zone defense ranks slightly lower than the Eagles', know that San Francisco allows a league-low 2.3 red zone trips to opposing offenses per game.
|Team||Off. 3rd Down Conversion Rate||
Off. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)
|Def. 3rd Down Conversion Rate||Def. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)||Sacks per Game|
|49ers||45.76% (5th)||52.78% (20th)||39.02% (15th)||55.81% (18th)*||2.5 (13th)|
|Eagles||47.46% (3rd)||68.75% (3rd)||38.56% (12th)||53.57% (11th)||4.2 (1st)|
The 49ers offensive line allows 1.8 sacks per game, while the Eagles o-line - due somewhat to Hurts' holding the ball longer as a mobile QB - allow 2.5 sacks per game.
Eagles News and Notes
- On the injury front, A.J. Brown - who was seen dealing with a lower body injury in the win over the Giants - is all systems go.
- The defense might get cornerback Avonte Maddox back, too. He hasn't played since Week 16 due to a toe injury.
- Check out the Eagles defense sack totals over the past seven games:
- 5 vs NYG
- 2 vs NYG
- 7 vs NO
- 6 vs DAL
- 6 vs CHI
- 7 vs NYG
- 6 vs TEN
- 49ers Brock Purdy has been sacked 14 times in eight starts (including game he took over for Jimmy G.). I project him to lose at least one fumble in this game.
- Matchup to Watch: Eagles defense vs George Kittle
- Philly allowed 4.8 receptions, 47 receiving yards and 0.2 touchdowns (second-fewest in NFL) per game to opposing tight ends.
- Forecast: Temps near 50 degrees, no rain and 12 mph winds
Betting Pick: Eagles -2.5
Mr. Relevant Brock Purdy has been living the good life the past eight games. A loss to the Eagles doesn't make him a bad quarterback or a one-season wonder. The Eagles defensive pass rush is just that good and Philly's o-line holds up against the 49ers', which allows Jalen Hurts to cook and cut up San Francisco's secondary.