We have ourselves an NBA playoff doubleheader tonight with two series that have been dominated by one side.
In the first series, the 76ers lost both games in Miami with Joel Embiid out, and despite a few scoring rampages by Luka Doncic for the Mavericks, Dallas looks completely lost as they are down 0-2 heading back to their home court. However, none of that matters to us. All we care about is cashing a few tickets.
Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let's take a look at our best bets for both games in the NBA tonight. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
The Trends:
- Miami is 11-3 ATS In Their Last 14 Games
- The Total Has Gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's Last 7 Games
- Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS In Their Last 5 Games
- The Total Has Gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's Last 7 Games
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 68% Miami
Spread: 73% Miami
Miami once again took care of business in Game 2 of this series to go up 2-0 over the 76ers. Although Embiid is currently listed as OUT, he has cleared concussion protocols, and he is doing everything he can to be able to play tonight. Based on the way his series has already unfolded, the 76ers are in desperate need of Embiid's size.
The Heat have crushed the 76ers in the pick-and-roll game, and a big part of that is DeAndre Jordan being a liability on the court. At one time, Jordan was considered one of the better rebounders in the NBA, and NBA history. Now, he is just not worth having on the floor, unless you are Doc Rivers, then it is apparently the most important thing to have Jordan out there attempting to make an impact.
Anyway, the reality of this game for the 76ers is they just simply need to make more shots. Entering the postseason, the 76ers were ranked seventh in three-point shooting percentage and sixth in shooting efficiency. Losing Embiid throws the whole dynamic of the team off, but that is no excuse for shooting 21% from deep on 64 attempts in the first two games.
Miami has not been shooting the ball all that well this series, but they do not need to when the 76ers just refuse to show up every night. Without Embiid, I have no faith in Philadelphia anymore. They just do not have the horses to keep up without them, which is a silly thing to say when James Harden is in the lineup, but it is the truth.
While home teams down 0-2 heading into Game 3 are 34-12-1 ATS, Miami is the play in this game. Kyle Lowry has been upgraded to questionable, but even without him, Miami has had no problems. I would personally wait until closer to game time so we get a better idea of Embiid's staus, but with Miami being one of the best teams ATS this season, and they have covered 11 of their last 14, we are rolling with the Heat.
Pick: Heat -1.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
The Trends:
- Phoenix Is 5-1 ATS In Their Last 6 Games
- The Total has Gone OVER In 6 Of Phoenix's Last 7 Games
- Dallas Is 5-2 ATS In Their Last 7 Games
- The Total Has Gone OVER In 10 Of Dallas' Last 15 Games
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 69% Phoenix
Spread: 64% Phoenix
The Mavericks simply do not have an answer for the Suns' offense. You know it was bad when Chris Paul was making Doncic look like the common fool out there. Phoenix went on a three-point rampage at the end of Game 2, and practically humiliated Dallas, who played pretty well for 80% of the game. The Suns outscored the Mavs 40-26 in the 4th quarter, and they shot 52% from three in the last game.
Although Doncic is not a great defensive player at this point in his career, and that is a part of Dallas' problem in this series, he should be able to legally fistfight his teammates for what has happened in the first two games. So far in this series, Doncic is averaging 40 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game on 53.8% shooting from the field, and 42.9% shooting from deep.
If Doncic is constantly putting up 40+ points, and Dallas is still getting blown out, I do not know how much optimism anyone in the Mavericks organization can have. My main takeaway from the first two games of the series is that Dallas just doesn't have it this season. They are on the right track, and that offense has a lot of potential with Doncic running the show. However, there is nothing they can do. They just cannot beat this team as currently constructed.
This game is a pick 'em, but I would bet the Suns up to -3. If you can find the Suns' Moneyline at plus-money, take it and run. Do not even think about it. Dallas does not have a prayer.
Pick: Suns ML (-110)
Photo Credit: Getty Images