Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/5/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Milwaukee Brewers hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +130 on Caesars
Best Spread Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-125) on Caesars
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-105) on ESPN BET

Game Info

Date: 2025-09-05
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: Apple TV+

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (86-55) travel to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (64-77) in what promises to be an intriguing divisional matchup. The Brewers, despite their strong season record, are coming off a series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Their offense ranks 9th in the league, and they are particularly adept at getting on base, contributing to their high scoring potential. On the mound for Milwaukee will be Quinn Priester, who boasts an impressive 11-2 record with a 3.28 ERA this season. Priester's ability to induce ground balls could be a key factor against a Pirates lineup that has struggled with power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, while sitting at the bottom of the NL Central, are entering this game with significant momentum. They recently swept the Los Angeles Dodgers and are riding a seven-game home winning streak, showcasing a different level of play at PNC Park. Their offense has shown signs of life during this homestand, despite ranking 29th in MLB in overall offensive production and last in home runs with just 102 this season. Johan Oviedo is slated to start for the Pirates, holding a 2-0 record and a 3.60 ERA through four starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. Oviedo's strikeout potential could pose a challenge for the Brewers' hitters.

Injury-wise, the Brewers are expecting Christian Yelich to return to the lineup after missing two games with back stiffness. Yelich has been a significant power threat for Milwaukee with 27 home runs and an .814 OPS. However, his effectiveness immediately following a back issue will be something to monitor. For the Pirates, key players like Ronny Simon, Jared Jones, Enmanuel Valdez, and Endy Rodríguez are out with season-ending injuries, while Jack Suwinski is on the 10-day IL with a groin strain.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the Milwaukee Brewers have held the upper hand in this rivalry, leading the head-to-head series with 90 wins to the Pirates' 61. When playing on the road against Pittsburgh, the Brewers maintain a favorable 40-34 record. In their most recent encounter on August 13, 2025, the Brewers secured a decisive 12-5 victory. This season, Milwaukee has dominated the series, holding a 7-3 advantage over Pittsburgh.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Brewers' starter Quinn Priester has faced his former team, the Pirates, once in his career. This occurred on May 24, 2025, where he allowed just one earned run on six hits over six innings in a no-decision, a game the Brewers ultimately lost 2-1. Pirates' starter Johan Oviedo has made six career appearances (three starts) against Milwaukee, holding a 2-2 record with a 4.50 ERA over 26 innings.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

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While the Milwaukee Brewers are the superior team on paper and lead the season series, the Pittsburgh Pirates present compelling value as home underdogs. The Pirates are currently playing their best baseball of the season, highlighted by a recent sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers and an impressive seven-game winning streak at home. Their home record of 42-30 further underscores their comfort and effectiveness at PNC Park. Johan Oviedo, despite limited action this season, has shown strong strikeout potential, which could help neutralize the Brewers' offense. Furthermore, the Brewers' bullpen has shown some vulnerability recently, posting a 4.45 ERA over their last 10 games. With Christian Yelich returning from back stiffness, there's a question mark around his immediate impact. The Pirates' current momentum and strong home performance make them an attractive upset pick at +130 on Caesars.

Top Player Prop Picks

William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) Over 0.5 Hits

William Contreras has been a consistent hitter for the Brewers, and his recent form against the Pirates is particularly strong. He has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 games and 90% of his last 10 games. Looking at his performance against the Pirates specifically, he has hit the over in 77.78% of his matchups against them in 2025 and 69.23% in 2024. His season average for hits is 0.99, and against the Pirates in 2025, it jumps to 1.22. Given these trends, backing Contreras to get at least one hit at -240 on FanDuel is a solid play.

Nick Gonzales (Pittsburgh Pirates) Over 0.5 Hits

Nick Gonzales has been on an absolute tear recently, hitting the over on 0.5 hits in 100% of his last 5 games and 90% of his last 10 games. His season hit rate for this prop stands at 71.05%. When playing at home in 2025, he has hit the over 74.36% of the time. Against the Brewers, he has a 66.67% hit rate in 2025 and 75% in 2024, with a mean of 1.5 hits per game against them in 2025. With such consistent performance, especially at home and against this opponent, taking the over on 0.5 hits for Gonzales at -195 on DraftKings is a strong pick.

Caleb Durbin (Milwaukee Brewers) Over 0.5 Bases

Caleb Durbin has demonstrated a knack for getting on base, particularly against the Pirates. He has hit the over on 0.5 bases in 80% of his last 10 games, with a mean of 2.6 bases. His season average for bases is 1.28, and when playing as a visitor in 2025, he averages 1.23 bases. Crucially, against the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2025, Durbin has hit the over on 0.5 bases in 80% of his appearances, averaging 1.9 bases per game. This consistent production makes the over on 0.5 bases for Durbin at -150 on Caesars a compelling prop bet.