Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/18/2025 2:20 PM EDT

We have your Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Milwaukee Brewers hit the road to face the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Chicago Cubs -115 (BetMGM), Milwaukee Brewers +100 (Caesars)
Best Spread Odds: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+160) (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 (-105) (BetMGM), Under 8.5 (-130) (ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: August 18, 2025
Time: 2:20 PM EDT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
TV: MLB Network, FanDuel Sports Wisconsin

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers (78-45) head to Wrigley Field for the first game of a day-night doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs (70-53). The Brewers enter this crucial NL Central matchup after their impressive 14-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday, but they still hold an eight-game lead over the Cubs in the division. Milwaukee has been a strong road team this season, boasting a 36-25 record away from home, and has been on an incredible run since late July, going 17-2 with a +70 run differential.

Milwaukee is set to start right-hander Freddy Peralta (14-5, 2.90 ERA). Peralta has been a dominant force this season, leading the league with 14 wins and accumulating 148 strikeouts over 136.2 innings. He has been particularly effective in his last two starts, allowing just one run and striking out 14 over 11 innings. However, his most recent outing against the Cubs saw him struggle, giving up five runs in four innings.

The Chicago Cubs, who have won their last two games, are 38-23 at home this season. They will counter with rookie right-hander Cade Horton (7-3, 3.07 ERA). Horton has been a revelation in his debut season, especially since the All-Star break, where he has posted a remarkable 0.32 ERA over 28.1 innings across five starts. Opposing hitters have managed just a .120/.198/.130 slash line against him during this stretch. This will be Horton's first career appearance against the Brewers. While Horton's recent form is impressive, his underlying metrics, such as a 4.00 xERA and .248 xBAA, suggest some regression might be due compared to Peralta's 3.53 xERA and .222 xBAA.

Offensively, the Brewers' lineup has been red-hot, batting .304 and scoring 51 runs over their last six games. They rank second in runs scored and stolen bases in MLB. The Cubs' offense, however, has been in a slump since the All-Star break, posting a .681 OPS and batting just .199 with 15 runs over their last six games, even against less formidable pitching staffs. Both bullpens are solid, with the Brewers holding a 3.85 reliever ERA and the Cubs a 3.81 reliever ERA.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The season series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs is currently tied at 4-4. Freddy Peralta has a career record of 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 92 innings across 21 appearances (16 starts) against the Cubs. While his last start against Chicago was challenging, his overall history against them is favorable. Cade Horton has not faced the Milwaukee Brewers in his career prior to this game.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+100)

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Despite playing on the road, the Milwaukee Brewers present excellent value on the moneyline at +100. Their recent form has been exceptional, highlighted by a 17-2 record since late July and a franchise-record 14-game winning streak. While that streak was snapped, their overall momentum and impressive +70 run differential during this period cannot be overlooked. Freddy Peralta, despite a recent hiccup against the Cubs, has been an ace for Milwaukee all season, leading the league in wins and boasting strong strikeout numbers. The Cubs' offense has been struggling significantly since the All-Star break, which could limit their ability to capitalize on Horton's strong recent outings. Furthermore, sharp money analysis on the spread indicates that the Brewers are undervalued, with a 58.36% sharp win percentage against the spread at -1.0, suggesting they are expected to perform better than the market anticipates. Given Milwaukee's current offensive surge and Peralta's overall season performance, backing the Brewers to secure a win in this crucial divisional matchup is a strong play.

Top Player Prop Picks

Freddy Peralta Over Strikeouts

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Freddy Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher, ranking in the 80th percentile in whiff percentage and 76th percentile in strikeout percentage this season. He has consistently delivered strong strikeout performances, recording six or more punchouts in 16 of his 25 starts this year. In his last two outings, he has struck out seven batters in each game. While the Cubs rank fourth in MLB in strikeouts per game (7.72), Peralta has shown the ability to exceed this against them, clearing his typical strikeout line in two of his three starts against Chicago this season (seven, six, and three punchouts).

Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 Outs

With the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen having been heavily utilized recently, including six arms on Saturday and further usage on Sunday, there's an increased likelihood that Freddy Peralta will be asked to pitch deeper into this game. This situation creates an appealing opportunity for Peralta to go over his outs total. Given his strong season and the team's need to conserve bullpen arms, expect Peralta to aim for a longer outing, making over 17.5 outs a favorable proposition.

Ian Happ Under Total Bases

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Ian Happ has historically struggled against Freddy Peralta. In 32 at-bats against Peralta, Happ has managed only two hits, resulting in a career batting average of just .063. He has also struck out 14 times against Peralta, indicating a high strikeout rate of 36.8%. This poor historical performance, combined with Peralta's high strikeout ability, suggests that Happ will likely have difficulty accumulating total bases in this matchup.

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