Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/29/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Miami Marlins @ New York Mets prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Miami Marlins hit the road to face the New York Mets.

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets -178 (Caesars) / Miami Marlins +152 (DraftKings)
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets -1.0 -127 (BetRivers) / Miami Marlins +1.5 -140 (Caesars)
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 -120 (ESPN BET) / Under 8.0 -118 (BetMGM)

Game Info

Date: August 29, 2025
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Citi Field, New York
TV: -

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets (70-65) are set to host the Miami Marlins (60-75) in the second game of their four-game series at Citi Field. The Mets saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday, falling 7-4 to the Marlins in a game where defensive errors proved costly. Despite being heavy favorites, the Mets struggled to contain a resilient Marlins offense. Pete Alonso did manage to hit his 30th home run of the season, tying the game at one point, but the Mets' bullpen and fielding faltered.

For Friday's matchup, the Mets will hand the ball to top prospect Jonah Tong, who is making his highly anticipated MLB debut. Tong has been dominant in the minors this season, boasting a 10-5 record with a stellar 1.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts across Double-A and Triple-A. His last two starts in Syracuse were particularly impressive, with 11 2/3 scoreless innings and 17 strikeouts. The Mets are hoping his electric fastball and developed pitch mix will provide a much-needed boost.

The Marlins will counter with right-hander Eury Pérez, who has rediscovered his form since returning from Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old has been on a hot streak, going 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last 10 starts since June, and maintaining an impressive 0.98 WHIP. Despite being without influential players like Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers due to injuries, the young and dynamic Marlins team has shown resilience, evidenced by their respectable 32-34 road record this season. Their ability to win Thursday's game as significant underdogs highlights their potential to spoil Tong's debut.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The head-to-head history between these division rivals adds an intriguing layer to this matchup. The Mets have generally held the upper hand in recent matchups. In the 2025 season, the Marlins have a 2-5 straight-up (SU) record against the Mets, but they have performed well against the spread (ATS) with a 5-2 record. Looking back to the 2024 season, the Marlins were 4-6 SU against the Mets, with a 6-4 ATS record. The most recent game on August 28, 2025, saw the Marlins defeat the Mets 7-4. Other recent results include a 5-0 Marlins win on April 9, 2025, and a 10-5 Mets victory on April 8, 2025. The Mets have been favored in 93 games this season, winning 54 of them.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

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The New York Mets are the favored team in this matchup, and for good reason. They hold a 70-65 record compared to the Marlins' 60-75. More importantly, the Mets have a strong home record of 44-24, while the Marlins are 31-34 on the road. Sharp money is heavily backing the Mets on the moneyline, with a 62.47% sharp win percentage. While the Marlins did pull off an upset in the previous game, the Mets are introducing a highly touted rookie pitcher in Jonah Tong, whose minor league numbers suggest he could be a game-changer. The narrative of a rookie debut often provides an emotional boost for the home team. Despite Eury Pérez's strong recent form for the Marlins, the overall team strength, home-field advantage, and the excitement surrounding Tong's debut lean towards a Mets victory.

Top Player Prop Picks

Jakob Marsee (MIA) Over 0.5 Bases

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Jakob Marsee has been consistently hitting the over on his bases prop. He has hit the over in 80% of his last 5 games, 90% of his last 10 games, and 75% of his last 20 games. His season-long over hit percentage stands at 77.78%. Furthermore, in his single appearance against the Mets in 2025, he hit the over 100% of the time. When playing on the road this season, he has hit the over in 66.67% of his games. This consistent performance, especially against the opponent, makes the over 0.5 bases at -160 odds on Caesars a strong play.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits

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Francisco Lindor has been a reliable hitter for the Mets, particularly recently. He has hit the over on his hits prop in 80% of his last 5 games, 90% of his last 10 games, and an impressive 93.33% of his last 15 games. His season hit rate is 64.66%. Against the Marlins in 2025, Lindor has hit the over in 100% of his 6 appearances, averaging 1.67 hits per game. At home this season, he has hit the over in 69.57% of his games. Given his strong recent form and excellent historical performance against the Marlins, taking the over 0.5 hits at -159 odds on BetRivers is a compelling pick.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits

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Brandon Nimmo presents another solid hitting prop opportunity. He has hit the over on his hits prop in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10 games. His season-long over hit percentage is 67.19%. Against the Marlins in 2025, Nimmo has hit the over in 71.43% of his 7 games, averaging 0.86 hits. When playing at home this season, he has hit the over in 72.31% of his games. With consistent recent performance and a favorable matchup history, the over 0.5 hits for Nimmo at -150 odds on FanDuel is a strong consideration.