Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/15/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Miami Marlins hit the road to face the Boston Red Sox.

Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Boston Red Sox -160 (BetMGM) / Miami Marlins +143 (BetRivers)
Best Spread Odds: Boston Red Sox -1.0 (-120) (BetRivers)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-115) (Caesars)

Game Info

Date: August 15, 2025
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV: NESN, FDSFL

Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox (66-56) are set to host the Miami Marlins (58-63) at Fenway Park. The Red Sox currently sit second in the AL East, while the Marlins are third in the NL East. Boston has been playing around .500 recently, with a 5-5 record over their last ten games. Their offense has been a consistent force, averaging 5.3 runs per game with a .254 batting average, and they lead the league with 250 doubles. However, their pitching has shown some vulnerability, posting a 4.71 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over their last five outings.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have struggled, losing seven of their last ten games. Their offense averages 4.35 runs per game with a .252 batting average, ranking 7th in the league in both batting average and doubles (202). Miami's pitching has been particularly concerning, allowing nearly 6 runs per game and holding a 7.02 ERA over their last five contests, giving up 2.0 home runs per game in that stretch.

The pitching matchup features Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.77 ERA) for the Red Sox and Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 6.55 ERA) for the Marlins. Giolito has been a reliable starter for Boston, though he admitted to losing feel for his mechanics in his last outing. Alcantara has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled with consistency this season. Fenway Park, with its park factor of 105, is known to be a batter-friendly venue, especially for doubles (124 park factor for 2B), which could favor both offenses.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the Boston Red Sox have held a significant advantage over the Miami Marlins. Boston leads the all-time head-to-head series with 26 wins compared to Miami's 10. The Red Sox have been particularly dominant at home, securing 14 of their 26 victories at Fenway Park. The Marlins have managed 6 road wins against Boston. The Red Sox have won their last three consecutive meetings against the Marlins, including a decisive 9-4 victory on March 14. Furthermore, the home team has won the last six games played between these two clubs at Fenway Park. Recent matchups have also been high-scoring, with the last three meetings combining for an average of 10.33 runs per game.

Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs

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Considering the recent offensive trends and pitching struggles for both teams, the Over 8.5 total runs is a compelling pick. The Marlins' pitching staff has been particularly vulnerable, allowing a 7.02 ERA over their last five games, while the Red Sox's bullpen has also shown inconsistencies. Both offenses have been productive, with the Red Sox averaging 5.3 runs per game and the Marlins averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last five outings. The historical head-to-head data also supports a higher-scoring affair, with the last three meetings averaging over 10 runs. Fenway Park's batter-friendly environment further enhances the likelihood of runs being scored.

Top Player Prop Picks

Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins) - Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5

Xavier Edwards has been in excellent form recently, hitting the over on this line in 100% of his last five games with an average of 3.2 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Over his last ten games, he's hit the over 90% of the time, averaging 3.1. For the season, he averages 2.15 Hits + Runs + RBIs. When facing the Red Sox in 2024, he hit the over in 66.67% of his matchups, averaging 1.67. As a visitor in 2025, he's hit the over in 59.26% of games, averaging 2.09. Given his recent hot streak and solid performance against Boston, taking the over on his 1.5 line at -160 on DraftKings is a strong play.

Roman Anthony (Boston Red Sox) - Hits Over 0.5

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Roman Anthony has consistently delivered at the plate, hitting the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games, averaging 1.0 hit. His performance remains strong over the last ten games, where he's also hit the over 80% of the time, averaging 1.1 hits. For the season, he averages 0.98 hits, hitting the over in 67.92% of his games. When playing at home in 2025, he's hit the over in 65.38% of his appearances, averaging 1.0 hit. With a line of 0.5, the odds are -250 on ESPN BET, reflecting the high probability of him getting at least one hit.

Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox) - Runs Over 0.5

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Trevor Story has shown a knack for scoring runs recently, hitting the over on 0.5 runs in 80% of his last five games, averaging 1.0 run. This trend continues over his last ten games, where he's also hit the over 80% of the time, averaging 1.0 run. While his season average is 0.57 runs (hitting the over in 46.67% of games), his recent form is very encouraging. At home in 2025, he's hit the over in 50% of his games, averaging 0.58 runs. The opportunity to get plus money at +105 on FanDuel for him to score at least one run makes this an attractive prop bet.