Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off tonight as the Miami Dolphins will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. 

Last week, the Dolphins were able to hold on to defeat the Buffalo Bills and become the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC, and the second undefeated team in the entire NFL. On the other side, the Bengals finally picked up the first win of their AFC title defense as they took down the New York Jets by over two touchdowns last week.

With only one game, I have decided to give you the best prop from three of the top sportsbooks in the country, as well as the best overall bet of the night through the book I use, BOVADA. If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

Let's pick out some winners.

 

FanDuel: Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

Cincinnati is absolutely loaded in their receiver room, which should make it harder for Mixon to go over this number, however, with their offensive line struggles, Mixon could be a valuable target for Joe Burrow tonight.

First of all, the offensive line, while improved from last year, has been wildly disappointing, causing Burrow to make decisions earlier in the play. The Bengals are only running the ball 29 times per game, and they are ranked 20th in rushing yards per game and 30th in yards per rush. The run is not working, the offensive line is not working, and while the receivers continue to be an issue for opposing teams, they do not have a chance to get open right now.

Mixon has gone over this number twice in his three games this season, and he is averaging 6.6 targets per game. The Dolphins' defense is better in the secondary, which is a good thing as a whole for Miami as they are going to have to be on their A-game against this skill room, but that means that we can expect a lot of short routes, and designed passes to the running back.

 

Barstool: Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)

 

Nobody has raised their stock through the first three weeks of the season more than Tagovailoa. Despite winning a lot of games in his short career, Tagovailoa has yet to really impress, and it has been no secret that the Dolphins have been looking for an upgrade in the past.

However, through the first three weeks of the season, he is proving that he belongs, and he has the Dolphins in a really good spot right now. Miami is 3-0, they have a win over the Bills (and Patriots, but the Bills win is way more important), and Tagovailoa is playing well right now.

He is completing 71.3% of his passes and is averaging 308.3 passing yards per game and a career-high 9.2 Y/A. Of course, adding Tyreek Hill to this receiver room has been a godsend, but everything is clicking in Mike McDaniel's first season in charge, including Tagovailoa's old Alabama teammate, Jaylen Waddle, who is blossoming into one of the game's most dangerous receivers.

Miami is only passing the ball 34.3 times per game, but they are averaging 8.5 yards per pass and just under 300 passing yards per game. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in rushes per game and 31st in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. McDaniel wants to get the ball to Waddle and Hill, and so far, t has been a very effective strategy.

 

Draftkings Touchdown Scorer Of The Night: Tyreek Hill (+130)

 

Do I need to say anymore?

Well, I will anyway. Hill saw only four targets for 33 yards last week against Buffalo, but the week before that, he went for 11 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Since he is going up against a poor Bengals secondary, and apparently has beef with Eli Apple (as most people do these days) I feel like we are getting a very good number with Hill's touchdown prop tonight.

Hill had 20 touches through the first two weeks, and that's when Miami looked its best. I would expect him to get a healthy stream of touches tonight, and if that happens, Hill is a pretty good bet to find the endzone at least once.

 

Bovada Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110)

 

There are a lot of injuries on both sides, but the Dolphins could be without Andrew Van Ginkel, Kader Kohou, Jevon Holland, and Jaylen Waddle tonight as they are all listed as questionable.

With the Bengals underperforming so far this season, and the Dolphins due for some regression just due to their injuries, we have the perfect conditions for another primetime under. First of all, primetime unders are 7-3 so far this season, and secondly, the trends heavily support the under as eight straight games have gone under the total for Cincinnati, and five of the last six when they host the Dolphins.

The number opened at 46 and has been as low as 46.5 earlier in the week. The majority of the tickets are on the over because of the high-flying ability of both offenses, but it's going to be chilly in Cincinnati tonight, and it's primetime, so the total is destined to go under the number.

 

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images