Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up tonight as the Los Angeles Rams will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers on 'Monday Night Football.'

Los Angeles took down their NFC West rival, the Arizona Cardinals last week 20-12 to improve to 2-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost a weird game against the Broncos last week 11-10. San Francisco is now 1-2 on the season, and Jimmy Garoppolo has not looked all that great since he took over for an injured Trey Lance, but he has won a lot of games in San Francisco, and just when it feels like he is out, he springs together a few wins.

My NFL props have started slow, but as a whole, my football picks are starting to heat up. This is always a funky matchup because it feels like the Rams should be the obvious side here, but the 49ers are giving 1.5-points tonight for a reason.

With only one game, I have decided to give you the best prop from the top sportsbook in the country, as well as the best overall bet of the night through the book I use, BetMGM. If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

Let's pick out some winners.

BetMGM: Darrell Henderson Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

The Rams' running back situation has been kind of crazy so far this season. We do not know when someone will be taken entirely out for a game or which of Henderson or Cam Akers will be the feature back of the day.

The likely answer for the Rams' starter the rest of the way is Akers after he got the majority of the carries last week, but again, we have no idea what Sean McVay is thinking, literally ever. Henderson has gone over this number twice this season, and for whatever reason, he got pulled from the game last week against the Cardinals after four carries in the first half of the game, and he still gained 17 yards.

 

 

Last season, Henderson went over this number in all but one game, in which he only received one carry. San Francisco has one of the better rush defenses in the NFL, ranking second in rushing yards allowed, and first in yards per rush (2.8). This will force the Rams to keep a constant rotation as this backfield will be tested a lot tonight.

Los Angeles only runs the ball 21.3 times per game, but I have always loved Henderson as a solid RB2, and with this being the lowest rushing prop of the season, I feel comfortable taking Henderson to go over this number.

 

BetMGM: Deebo Samuel Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

 

This one surprises me a little bit. Samuel has actually gone over this number twice in his three games so far this season, but last week was probably a better indication of how Samuel will fare in this running game.

Against Denver last week, Samuel gained only six yards on five rushes. Even with an injured and thin running back room, there are just not enough opportunities per game for me to feel comfortable with this number. Sure, he went well over this number in the first two games, but in Week 1, it took a 50-yard run and in Week 2 he broke free for a 30-yard rush.

The Rams have one of the better front sevens in the NFL, which will make it harder for Samuel to break free as most of his carries come on sweeps and reverses. This might be one of the final weeks Samuel's rushing yards prop is still in the 30s, so I am going to take advantage of that, and bet him to go under this number.

 

BetMGM Touchdown Scorer: George Kittle (+175)

 

Well, the 49ers' offense has been quite awful this season, and now that Garoppolo is back taking the snaps, things are not looking great in the Bay. San Francisco is only scoring 15.7 points per game, and they are ranked 23rd in yards per play (5.1), 20th in yards per pass (6.4), and they are only scoring 1.7 touchdowns per game.

 

However, this is the perfect spot for George Kittle to find the endzone for the first time this season. First of all, I woke up this morning and I could just feel it in my bones that Kittle was going to score tonight (totally not because of personal fantasy reasons). Secondly, Kittle has scored five career touchdowns against the Rams, which is the most against any team in his career. Lastly, Kittle and Garoppolo have together hooked up for three touchdowns in six career games against the Rams.

Los Angeles's defense is allowing a touchdown in 50% of red zone opportunities, and they are allowing 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. I like this unit, but Kittle has feasted against this defense in the past, and with the 49ers trying to find any answer on offense, I expect Kittle to be a massive part of the offense tonight.

 

BetMGM Best Bet: 49ers -1.5

 

Kyle Shanahan has dominated the Sean McVay-led Rams in the regular season, going 8-3 ATS in their 11 career meetings, including 3-0 last season, and they have covered in five straight matchups with Los Angeles. The 49ers are also 6-1 in their last 7 against the Rams, and in those last seven meetings, the 49ers are winning by an average of eight points per game.

While Los Angeles' offense is astronomically ahead of the 49ers' unit right now, the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they have an elite front seven. Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw are going to cause hell on an underperforming Rams offensive line, and give a visually weathered Matthew Stafford a lot of trouble.

The secondary has also been much improved for San Francisco and although their offense scares me, they still run the ball well, and the Rams, while a top-10 statistical unit, have not been very stout against the run, and is a group that this 49ers rushing attack can certainly exploit.

 

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