Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/2/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -165 (ESPN BET) / Pittsburgh Pirates +145 (BetRivers)
Best Spread Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100 ESPN BET) / Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-118 Fanduel)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-102 Fanduel) / Under 8.5 (-115 ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: 2025-09-02
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: -

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-59) travel to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (61-77) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Dodgers, leading the NL West, send veteran left-hander Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Kershaw (9-2, 3.06 ERA) has been in stellar form, particularly in August, where he boasts a 5-0 record with a remarkable 1.88 ERA. His ability to adapt, utilizing his slider (41% usage) and curveball (17% usage) to compensate for diminished fastball velocity, has resulted in a 94th percentile barrel rate and 84th percentile groundball rate. The Dodgers' offense, despite a slight dip in August, remains potent, ranking second in slugging percentage and home runs, and leading MLB in walk rate against right-handed pitching (10%). They are particularly effective against lower-scoring offenses, holding a 37-16 record against teams in the bottom 10 for runs scored, a category the Pirates currently occupy at 30th in MLB.

Opposing Kershaw for the Pirates will be right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski (3-7, 3.86 ERA). Mlodzinski began the season in the rotation but was demoted after posting a 5.67 ERA in his first nine starts. He has since returned to the Majors as a reliever, cutting his ERA to 3.86, but this will be his 12th start of the year. While Mlodzinski has shown flashes, ranking in the 16th percentile in xBA and 20th percentile in average exit velocity, there are questions about his effectiveness in a starting role. The Pirates' offense has shown some improvement in August, ranking 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ and boosting their walk rate to 10.1%. However, they struggle significantly against left-handed pitching, holding the second-highest strikeout rate and ranking 28th in wOBA against southpaws, which bodes well for Kershaw.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

When looking at the individual matchups between the starting pitchers and the opposing rosters, Clayton Kershaw has a career summary against the current Pittsburgh Pirates roster over 79 plate appearances, allowing a .230 batting average and a .324 slugging percentage, with one home run. Specifically, Andrew McCutchen has faced Kershaw 44 times, hitting .268 with one home run, while Tommy Pham has a .167 batting average in 26 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds has a .333 average in 3 plate appearances against Kershaw.

On the other side, Carmen Mlodzinski has limited experience against the current Los Angeles Dodgers roster, facing them only 5 times in his career. In those limited plate appearances, he has not allowed a hit and has recorded 3 strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani has faced Mlodzinski twice, striking out once, while Mookie Betts has drawn a walk in his single plate appearance.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear pick here at -1.5. While the Pirates have shown some resilience at home (39-30 record), the Dodgers are the superior team, especially with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw's dominant August form (1.88 ERA) and his ability to induce ground balls will be a significant challenge for a Pirates offense that struggles against left-handed pitching (2nd highest K-rate, 28th wOBA at LHP) and hits a high percentage of ground balls (45.5% in August). Furthermore, the Pirates have a poor record when allowing multiple home runs (3-30) or falling behind late in games (3-63 when trailing in the 8th), which aligns with the Dodgers' strong offensive capabilities and their tendency to score early (38-11 when scoring in the first inning). The sharp money also favors the Dodgers moneyline, indicating confidence in their outright win. Expect Kershaw to control the game and the Dodgers' offense to capitalize on Mlodzinski's vulnerabilities, leading to a comfortable victory.

Top Player Prop Picks

Andy Pages (Los Angeles Dodgers) - Over 0.5 Hits

Andy Pages has been a consistent hitter for the Dodgers, and his recent form is particularly strong. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his last ten games. For the season, he's hit the over in 65.91% of his games. More impressively, in his 2025 matchups against the Pittsburgh Pirates, he has hit the over in 100% of his three games, averaging 3.33 hits per game. Playing on the road this season, he's hit the over in 63.49% of his games. Given his excellent recent performance and strong history against the Pirates, taking the over on 0.5 hits for Andy Pages at -225 odds on BetRivers is a solid play.

Nick Gonzales (Pittsburgh Pirates) - Over 0.5 Hits

Nick Gonzales has been a reliable source of hits for the Pirates, especially recently. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games and 90% of his last ten games. His season hit rate for the over is 69.86%, and when playing at home, he's hit the over in 72.22% of his games. His average hits per game this season is 1.11. While his head-to-head numbers against the Dodgers in 2024 and 2025 are slightly lower, his overall consistency and strong recent form make the over on 0.5 hits a favorable bet. You can find this prop at -240 odds on ESPN BET.

Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers) - Over 4.5 Hits Allowed

While Clayton Kershaw is expected to have a strong outing, the line for hits allowed at 4.5 presents an interesting opportunity. Kershaw has hit the over on 4.5 hits allowed in 60% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten games. For the season, he's hit the over in 70.59% of his starts, averaging 4.76 hits allowed per game. When pitching on the road, he's hit the over in 75% of his games this season. Despite the Pirates' struggles against lefties, Kershaw's tendency to allow hits, even in winning efforts, makes the over on 4.5 hits allowed a statistically supported pick. This prop is available at -140 odds on Pinnacle.