Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up tonight as the Las Vegas Raiders will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on 'Monday Night Football.' The game will start at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Chiefs are once again a weapon, I fear. After taking down the Buccaneers 41-31 last week to improve to 3-1 on the season, Kansas City looks the part, they have one of the best offenses in football after losing Tyreek Hill, and Patrick Mahomes is back to doing 360, no-look touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Raiders picked up their first win of the Josh Mcdaniels era last week as they were able to hold off the Denver Broncos 32-23.
With only one game, I have decided to give you the three-best props from the top sportsbook in the country, BetMGM. Y'all know that I hate upsetting the haters and losers (of which there are many), but I am scorching hot right now. I am hitting at a 67% clip over the last 30 days, and my primetime best bets are 10-5 on the season.
If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
Let's pick out some winners.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This number is comically low for a receiving back in an offense that throws the hell out of the ball. Coming into tonight, Kansas City throws the ball only 36.8 times per game, which is 13th in the NFL, but nobody throws the ball to their running backs more than the Chiefs, especially on early downs.
Other than a poor showing last week, Edwards-Helaire has gone well over this number three times on the season, and he is averaging 38.3 receiving yards on four targets per game that he goes over this number. It also helps that the Raiders have one of the worst defenses against receiving backs, as they are allowing backs to go for 50 receiving yards on 7.8 targets and 5.8 catches per game
Even if we round down and say that Edwards-Helaire only gets seven targets tonight, his receiving prop is still going way over on 3.5 targets per game. I am hammering this number, and I advise you to do the same on any number you can find below 20.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After trading Tyreek Hill in the offseason, Kansas City was going to have to find some sort of replacement, even if it was a clear downgrade. Because they have all their money tied up, they decided to go with the 'Moneyball' strategy and recreate Hill in the aggregate. They brought in a few receivers, including Valdes-Scantling in order to diversify their passing attack, and I will tell you what, it is working.
The Chiefs are top-10 in completion percentage (66%), yards per game (267.8), QB sack % (3.29%), and yards per pass (7.3), and Valdes-Scantling has been a huge part of their early season success. Coming into tonight, he is third on the team in targets (23) and receiving yards (168).
Valdes-Scantling has gone over this number in three out of four games for the Chiefs this season, and in the games that he has gone over, he is averaging 51.6 yards per game. Even in the game he went under this number, he had seven targets, which is the most he has had in a game this season. Despite his yards per game being five yards below his career average, he is fitting in comfortably in this offense, and the Raiders have one of the worst secondaries on deep balls in the NFL.
Touchdown Scorer Of The Night: Josh Jacobs (+125)
What I am about to say is what makes betting on sports so damn hard. Statistically, Kansas City has the best run-defense in the NFL, as they are ranked second in yards per rush (3.3), first in rushing yards per game (65.8), and teams are only running the ball 19.8 times per game against the Chiefs. Their secondary is ranked towards the bottom of the league in the majority of stats, but they are ranked 11th in coverage per PFF while they are also ranked as a middle-of-the-road run defense.
Anyway, Jacobs has woken up a bit after starting the season slow, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against a good Broncos defense last week. In his career against the Chiefs, Jacobs has totaled three touchdowns in six career games.
He is also top five in red zone rushing attempts, so this feels like the best value on the board given that Kansas City has a mediocre run defense, and all the attention is going to be on Las Vegas' star-studded passing attack.
Best Overall Bet: Under 52 (-110)
I'm going to keep it a buck with yall, I am strictly just betting primetime under, and it has been a very profitable decision for your boy. After the Bengals vs. Ravens went under the number last night, primetime unders are now 11-4 on the season. This was a trend that I started to notice last season, and if you have not jumped on it yet, I just do not know what to tell you.
Now, the last time a primetime game went over was when Kansas City went to Tampa Bay and made a statement win, but I like these defenses more than the numbers indicate, and to be honest, I truly just do not understand what Josh McDaniels is actually doing on offense.
Kansas City has seen their last five 'Monday Night Football' games go under the total, and although the over is 4-0 in the last four matchups between these AFC West rivals, I am going to ride the primetime under trend.
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